Climate bottlenecks in food supply chains: overview
- Climate change reduces crop yields through heat, drought and pests
- Extreme temperatures lower livestock productivity and affect milk quality
- Drought disrupts rail, shipping and key food trade routes
- Higher storage energy demands increase costs across supply chains
- Climate pressures raise retail prices and accelerate food spoilage
Climate change poses a significant risk to food and beverage.
But this risk is not just present on a farm level. It is seen across the entire supply chain, from farm to fork.
1. Farm: Crop yields pushed down by heat and drought
One of the most omnipresent effects of climate change on food is its impact on crop yields.
Crops around the world have been affected by drought and high temperatures, including cocoa in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire and coffee in Brazil.
A case in point has been the recent heatwaves in Europe. The heatwaves have led to approximately €1.8bn worth of damage in Europe, according to think tank Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.
Droughts have also impacted crops throughout the whole of Europe. No major crop in Europe has been unaffected, according to Andrew Kanyemba, senior grains analyst at commodity analysis platform Expana.
2. Farm: Milk and egg quality
It is not just crops that are affected by high temperatures, but livestock as well. According to a joint report by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), animals are put under significant stress by extreme heat.
Extreme heat can impact yields of milk from cows and eggs from chickens. Furthermore, milk from heat-stressed animals can have lower fat and protein content, and eggs can have thinner shells and altered yolk quality.
High temperatures can also mean that livestock struggle to control their body temperatures, potentially leading to organ failure, cardiovascular shock and death. High temperatures can also affect the efficiency with which animals convert feed into energy.
3. Farm: Unpredictable weather patterns
When weather becomes erratic and unpredictable, this can make crop production much more difficult.
For example, growing cocoa requires very specific growing conditions at specific times of the year. Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa farmers, however, have reported that erratic weather conditions have impacted many aspects of production. Rain during the fermentation process, for example, lowers temperatures and makes the process less efficient. When farmers knew when the rainy and dry seasons were going to come, they could prepare in advance: now, this is more difficult.
English farmers have also experienced disruptions due to unpredictable weather patterns, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. While autumn has been too wet, April has been too dry.
4. Farm: Crop pests
Crop pests can proliferate in hot temperatures, impacting yields of key crops even further.
The rise in global temperatures could expand the geographic range of some insect pests, suggests one study. It could also increase their overwintering survival and number of generations. A result of this could be a threat to food security.
One example of this has been swollen shoot virus, a pest that has been the scourge of cocoa farmers, eating into crops and exacerbating already existing problems. Climate change can help the pests thrive.
5. Transportation: Hot railway lines
In the heat, steel rails tend to expand and buckle, according to the UK’s Network Rail, causing them to become up to 20°C hotter than air.
Overhead lines can also expand and sag when temperatures are hot enough.
These sorts of disruptions can affect the food sector. According to the website Our World in Data, around 9.9% of the world’s food is transported by rail. This is measured in food miles, which (somewhat confusingly) represents one tonne of food travelling one kilometre.
6. Transportation: Shipping disruptions
Meanwhile, food transported via shipping is likely to face difficulties due to climate as well, with droughts impacting key trade routes.
Droughts in the Panama Canal have led to low water levels and difficulty in getting ships through. The canal’s vulnerability to drought increases during climate change, according to one study. This can be a bottleneck for food trade – according to UK think tank Chatham House, just under three-quarters of all Japanese maize passes through the Panama Canal.
Earlier this year, the River Rhine in Germany reached historic low levels, making trade in numerous goods, including grains, much more difficult, according to non-profit news website Earth.Org.
According to Our World in Data, 58.97% of global food miles are on the water, by far the largest proportion of food-related transportation.
7. Storage: Energy usage
Many food products must be stored in cold chain storage in order to avoid spoilage. But climate change can make this more difficult.
With higher temperatures comes greater energy usage; cold chain storage must work harder to keep food at the same temperature. With more heat entering from outside than usual, keeping temperatures the same is far more difficult, explains Richard Russell, managing director of the UK branch of logistics company New Cold. Heatwaves often coincide with peak electricity demand, meaning the grid may also be more unstable than usual.
And with increased energy usage comes higher costs, as manufacturers must pay higher energy bills.
8. Retail: Price
The series of disruptions and bottlenecks seen up until now will often filter through to the level of retail, pushing up prices.
Food prices are, of course, affected by a number of factors, including geopolitical instability from the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Yet severe weather has played a major role in food price increases at retail level.
Food prices are still high and could go up even further. In Europe, especially, the impact of recent droughts has not worked its way through the supply chain, says Chris Brockman, EMEA vice president of insights for food and drink at Mintel. Meanwhile, the impact of this year’s El Niño, predicted to be the largest since the 19th century, remains to be seen.
One example is chocolate. Due to elevated commodity costs, retail values of chocolate have gone up since the beginning of the cocoa crisis in 2024. Companies such as Mondelēz International have enacted pricing on products to deal with cocoa costs.
High prices at retail level can affect consumer confidence, which in turn can lead to lower sales.
9. Retail: Changing tastes
Once the food is on the shelf, there is no guarantee that it will be sold.
Not all categories perform well in high temperatures. For example, categories such as bakery and hot meals have seen strain during heatwaves, with consumers turning instead towards ice-cream and chilled desserts.
Climate change has the potential to reshape tastes, leading to certain foods losing their appeal.
10. Waste: Accelerating food spoilage
Hot temperatures are accelerating food spoilage, according to the UN’s PreventionWeb, making bacteria spread more quickly.
Higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns can lead to the proliferation of foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Campylobacter jejuni.
For example, higher humidity can lead to the growth of salmonella on lettuce.
Increased food waste can be costly. Food waste currently costs the global economy $1tn (€867bn) annually, according to the UN Environment Programme. This could increase with more food waste from increased spoilage.
