Heatwave food and drink trends: overview
- Heatwaves shift spending towards cooling, hydrating and convenient food categories
- Ice cream and frozen desserts benefit from longer seasons and impulse purchases
- Chocolate struggles due to melting risks and increased cold-chain costs
- Hydration drinks and bottled water see strong growth during hot weather, as do cold drinks like iced coffee
- Dairy supply declines and hot meals lose demand as consumers avoid cooking
As summer approaches, so does the prospect of heatwaves. Over the past few decades, in Europe at least, heatwaves have become increasingly common.
An increase in temperature brings with it a significant change in consumer behaviour. They’re attracted to different foods and drinks when it’s hot.
“The most important implication for the industry is that heatwaves do not necessarily increase food spending; instead, they redistribute it toward products that offer hydration, cooling, convenience and refreshment,” says Shivya Puri, senior research analyst at consumer analytics company Mordor Intelligence.
But this is not the only way heatwaves can affect food and drinks. High temperatures can put pressure on the supply chains of some categories, straining logistics and reducing yields.
Winner: ice cream
Perhaps most obviously, ice cream is a key winner from heatwaves, with consumers flocking to chilled desserts when the temperature rises.
“Longer periods of warm weather are extending consumption occasions, encouraging impulse purchases and supporting premiumisation across the category,” says Mordor Intelligence’s Puri.
Demand for ice cream ramps up during a heatwave, says Jordan Kear-Nash, principal consultant at procurement consultancy Proxima. Ice cream businesses often increase production in the preceding months in preparation for this, and adjust deployment dynamically as the season unfolds.
Frozen desserts benefit from heatwaves, not only from day-to-day weather but a shift in long-term weather patterns, extending the period in which they are able to thrive.
Frozen desserts are “benefiting not merely from favourable weather but from a long-term climate trend that is extending selling seasons and creating new opportunities for premium products”, says Puri.
Losers: chocolate and confectionery
Chocolate struggles during heatwaves, not because of low consumer demand but because of composition, explains Puri. Of course, in hot weather, it is more likely to melt. Because of this, manufacturers in this area “are among the most exposed” to heatwaves.
Cocoa butter melts at 34°C, which creates significant challenges for production, transportation, merchandising and retail display during a heatwave, as well as increasing cold-chain costs.
Businesses such as Barry Callebaut are focused on countering the effects of this, investing in heat-resistant tech that maintains chocolate quality at temperatures as high as 38°C without refrigeration.
On the consumer side, people are encouraged to switch from chocolate and confectionery to colder alternatives such as ice cream and chilled desserts.
Winners: bottled water and hydration beverages
Consumers are also keen to stay hydrated in the hot weather, so the bottled water and hydration drinks categories see success during heatwaves.
Hydration beverages are ‘the biggest winner’ from heatwaves, according to Mordor Intelligence. Functional hydration beverages are seeing strong growth, with isotonic sports drinks, which contain similar concentrations of salt and carbohydrates as the human body, making up more than half of the sports drinks market’s revenue in 2025, its data suggests.
Meanwhile, Europe’s bottled water market grew by 5% in value and 3% in volume in the same year.
“As temperatures rise, consumers increasingly prioritise hydration and wellness, transforming bottled water and functional beverages from seasonal products into year-round growth categories,” says Puri.
These drinks are keenly associated with heatwaves. In the UK, for example, nearly two-thirds of adults associate bottled water with being ‘good for hydration’, while nearly half who drink bottled water on-the-go highlight how category performance is impacted by the weather, according to Mintel Insights, a division of consumer analytics company Mintel.
Sports and energy drinks also do well during heatwaves. According to Mintel Insights, they did better in the UK during the hot summer of 2025 than in the cool summer of 2024.
Loser: dairy
Though ice cream is a major winner in hot weather, heatwaves are not good news for the rest of the dairy category.
The sector as a whole is vulnerable to heat stress, explains Puri. Hot weather lowers feed intake, reduces milk yields, impairs the reproductive performance of animals and impacts the dairy value chain.
During the heatwaves in 2025, France saw a 1.8% decline in milk output, with Germany recording a 2.3% decline.
In particular, milk production falls substantially when wet-bulb temperatures, the lowest temperatures that can be achieved through water evaporating at a given time, exceed 26°C.
Milk quality is also affected by heat. “Beyond volume declines, heat stress reduces milk fat and protein content, negatively affecting the economics of producing value-added products such as cheese and butter,” says Puri.
Winners: chilled and iced beverages
Water and hydration beverages are not the only drinks categories that are doing well in heatwaves. Chilled and iced drinks are also flourishing.
“Consumers increasingly seek convenient, refreshing products during periods of extreme heat,” says Puri.
Iced coffee is doing particularly well. Research predicts that around 47% of consumers switch from hot coffee to iced coffee during hot weather, going up to 74% among Millennials and 81% among Gen Z.
Transaction data from Square, a payments platform, showed a 137% increase in iced coffee purchases in the UK during the country’s heatwave between 22 and 25 May 2026.
Iced coffee is not the only example of a cold beverage flourishing during hot weather. According to consumer analytics company NIQ, sales of cider, lager, and other chilled beverages tick up during periods of hot weather in the UK.
Losers: hot meals and bakery
For many consumers, hot meals and bakery products are not the go-to choice during a heatwave. Sales of these products often decline when temperatures go up.
“As temperatures rise, consumers increasingly favour salads, fresh fruit, sandwiches, chilled snacks and cold beverages over products requiring cooking or heating,” says Puri.
This can have real consequences for businesses. In 2025, UK bakery chain Greggs issued a profit warning following a particularly hot June, where demand for pastries and hot food went down. This led to the company’s share price declining by 15%.
Hot temperatures also affect demand for frozen pizzas and certain ready meals, with consumers reluctant to cook during periods of high heat.
Learnings for a heatwave
The success or failure of different foods in a heatwave is not just down to whether or not they can generate demand from consumers.
This is certainly a factor. Consumers are drawn to ice cream, chilled desserts and functional beverages because of the need for cooler temperatures and hydration. They are less interested in hot meals because cooking in the heat is less appealing than at other times.
Yet supply chains are also impacted by the heat. Chocolate is vulnerable to heatwaves because storage for such a meltable product is difficult. Dairy is vulnerable at the source, with high temperatures affecting milk yields and quality.
Companies should be aware that the weather can affect their products at all stages of their life.
