The current El Niño has already been predicted as a ‘super El Niño’. But even this could be an understatement.
2026’s El Niño, which has already started, is likely to develop into the largest in living memory, the UK’s Met Office has said, and perhaps even the largest since the 19th century.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” said Professor Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the Met Office.
A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial sea-surface temperature rise of about 1-2oC, with 2oC being a big event, he explains. However, the Met Office’s long-range forecast predicts temperature rises up to more than 3oC in the coming months.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a term used to describe the warming of sea surface temperatures, usually concentrated in central-east equatorial Pacific. It is declared when temperatures rise by 0.5°C or more. A 'super' El Niño occurs when these temperatures rise above 2°C.
El Niño occurs once every two-to-seven years. It usually peaks in December, hence its name, which is short for El Niño de Navidad, or 'the Christmas boy', meaning Jesus Christ.
El Niño usually leads to disruption in global weather patterns, including changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures.
How will this affect food and beverage?
El Niño tends to affect rainfall patterns, and this will be no different. The Indian summer monsoon is already running well below typical rainfall patterns, according to the Met Office. Many crops in India, such as rice, thrive from plentiful rainfall and may be negatively impacted by such declines.
Central America, west Pacific nations and tropical South America, home to an abundance of key agricultural crops, are also at risk of low rainfall.
El Niño also causes temperatures around the world to soar, and the present El Niño could take this to new extremes. “2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed +1.5 C above the preindustrial period,” says Met Office science fellow Dr Nick Dunstone.
Many key agricultural crops, such as corn, are heat sensitive, and therefore heavily impacted by extreme heat. Heat stress can also lead to drought conditions, pushing down yields of many crops.
The impact of this El Niño may very well be unprecedented. Food and beverage must be prepared.
