El Niño: How F&B will be impacted

El Niño has begun. The meteorological event will likely have an immense impact on food and beverage due to the far-reaching changes in weather patterns it brings. Some reports even indicate that a ‘super El Niño’ may be on the horizon, according to the UK’s House of Commons library. Weather forecasters are predicting that this El Niño could be one of the strongest on record. Food manufacturers must be prepared. El Niño is a term used to describe the warming of sea surface temperatures that occurs roughly every two-to-seven years, usually concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific, according to the UK’s Met Office. Specifically, El Niño is declared when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above long-term average. A ‘super El Niño‘, which is predicted to take place this year, happens when such temperatures go above 2°C. El Niño normally peaks in December. The name itself, which translates to ‘the boy’, is thought to be coined by Peruvian fishermen who named the phenomenon after the newborn Jesus Christ. El Niño pushes up temperatures and changes rainfall patterns throughout the world. This can, of course, threaten food production. Areas under particular threat include those at risk of drought or extreme rainfall. Reduced monsoon rainfall may impact crops such as rice, pulses and oilseeds, particularly in South Asian countries such as India, says Jorge Alvar Beltran, natural resources officer for agrometeorology at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Lack of rainfall in southern Africa may affect maize production. Soybean, maize and rice may be affected by above-average rainfall and flood risk in southern Brazil. On the Horn of Africa, especially in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, above-average rainfall poses a risk to cereal and pastoral production. Maize and bean harvests have been affected in the past, particularly in the Central American Dry Corridor, a strip of land in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua that is particularly vulnerable to climate pressures. Because drier conditions can affect the quality and quantity of grassland, livestock production and reproduction can also be affected by El Niño, explains Beltran. Heat stress from an El Niño event can lead to drought conditions, in turn resulting in decreased feed intake, lower milk yields and changes in milk quality. On the flip-side, extreme rainfall and flooding events can lead to animal deaths. Big food and beverage FMCGs must work with producers to mitigate risk, suggests Timothy Benton, professor of population ecology at the University of Leeds. They must diversify their sources and logistics, and build up reserves to deal with crises. Benton is keen to stress that any impact El Niño may have does not take place in isolation, but in an increasingly volatile world for food and beverage. Events such as the war in Iran or the Covid-19 pandemic have been highly disruptive to the food system. El Niño simply “further enhances volatility, and the industry needs to recognise that volatility, from whatever cause, is the new normal, and focus on building resilience in general,” says Benton. While in the past, the food industry has been good at dealing with “normal disruptions”, such as the fairly regular appearance of El Niño, it has not, in Benton’s view, adapted well to the extreme volatility that has been seen recently. “The issue is that resilience-building costs and parts of the industry fear paying extra will reduce profits if it isn’t going to be needed ... but it is getting to the point where disruptions are so normal, this should be a priority for industry.” In a word, yes. Rising temperatures from climate change have been steadily eroding yields for many of the food sector’s biggest commodities for years. When combined with the effects of El Niño, the results can be harsh and unforgiving. The impact of climate change not only fuels heat wave intensity and duration, but erratic rainfall patterns and prolonged droughts, explains FAO’s Beltran. Droughts in particular pose a significant risk to the food sector, and these are exacerbated by climate change. “Droughts can collapse entire systems through cascading impacts propagating from farms through food systems, societies and economies, ultimately triggering feedback loops that prevent recovery. “Drought-induced cascading pathways, including crop failure, livestock sell-offs, food price increases and declines in rural incomes can generate far-reaching systemic impacts such as food insecurity, asset depletion, inflationary pressures, migration and conflict.” In conclusion, El Niño poses many of the same threats as climate change – rising temperatures, droughts and rainfall volatility. These pose worldwide risks, threatening rice in South Asia, soybeans in Brazil and maize in Africa. The food sector must diversify its sources, build up its reserves, and prepare for the worst.