Amid the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, ongoing fertiliser shortages and spiralling energy costs are having a major impact. With the geopolitical uncertainty continuing, wider food supply disruptions look set to continue.
The war has placed a chokehold on the global economy, impacting the whole supply chain from oil, fertiliser, to transport to packaging to food production.
FoodNavigator looks at some of the wider impacts of the conflict on the supply chain thus far.
Diet Coke vanishes from shelves in India
Reports of Diet Coke disappearing from shelves across India, alongside the rise of ‘Diet Coke parties’, have been linked to a growing aluminium shortage in the region.
According to Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at Think, the aluminium market has moved into a “significant deficit” following the continuing escalation in the Middle East. This matters as the Middle East counts for 9% of global supply but represents a much larger share of seaborne supply.
There has also been a halt of operations and reduction in production at plants in the Middle East adding to the lack of aluminium. Even if a deal is finalised between the US and Iran and the plants start production is unlikely to end the deficit immediately.
Coca-Cola Company has remained tight-lipped about the situation but acknowledged that shortage of aluminium and certain ingredients that have impacted the supply chain.
“We’re also maintaining plans to address any supply chain challenges that arise,” the company said.
Calbee removing colour from packaging
Japanese snacks manufacturer Calbee revealed that its brightly coloured food packaging would be going monochrome due to the impact of the Iran war.
The reason is the supply chain of naphtha, a hydrocarbon mixture, used in the production of snack packaging. Japan imports a substantial portion of this from the Middle-East.
A Calbee spokesperson confirmed to FoodNavigator that the company is unable to provide a timeline for how long this situation will be, given the ongoing uncertainty in the region.
“These products are now beginning to appear in retail, but we are unable to provide further details on timing by individual retailer,” the spokesperson said.
“As noted in our announcement, this measure applies only to a limited number of products in Japan and does not affect product quality, contents, or safety. It is intended to help maintain a stable supply of products.”
In total, 14 product variants of Calbee Potato Chips, Kappa Ebisen, and Frugra, are subject to the change.
Calbee said it will continue to respond flexibly and promptly to changes in its operating environment, including geopolitical risks, and remains committed to maintaining a stable supply of safe, high quality products.
Rice pressures mount in the Philippines
The Philippines is grappling with rising food prices and soaring living costs, driven in part by fertiliser supply issues linked to the Middle East conflict.
There are growing concerns that farmers will scale back production with some planters forced to stop rice farming altogether because of the rising production costs. An increase in imported rice would mean that prices of rice would further spiral.
With the average Filipino consuming about 118kg of rice per year, even modest price increases in rice prices can put a large strain on household budgets.
With a potentially severe El Niño climate phenomenon on the horizon and farm input costs climbing, the Department of Agriculture (DA) has moved to reassure rice farmers that planting will remain viable and profitable. Rice is classified as a basic necessity under the law, placing it under the regulatory powers of the DA during periods of excessive or unreasonable price increases.
Authorities have enforced a P50-per-kilo price ceiling on imported rice with 5% broken grains.
The DA has warned rice retailers, traders, and importers that violators of the newly imposed price ceiling on imported rice could face jail time, million-peso fines, and even business closures under the Price Act.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said: “Unlike the previous maximum suggested retail price that depended largely on moral suasion and voluntary compliance, the mandated price ceiling now allows the Department of Agriculture to impose punitive sanctions and fines on violators.”
Pistachio output and logistics
Pistachios are facing a perfect storm of challenges, combining natural cycles with geopolitical disruption and transport issues.
Nick Moss, Nuts Reporter at commodity analytics company Expana told Food Navigator that pistachios are in an ‘interesting situation’ with global output constrained by the crops natural ‘alternate bearing cycle’, where high-yield years are followed by lower ones.
Major producers, Iran and US, are in less productive years while Turkey, which is in a larger production year, is expecting a smaller harvest.
Iran, the second largest producer of pistachios globally, is also dealing with drought and logistical challenges stemming from sanctions and the conflict.
The result is that global supplies are currently projected to fall by 30%, said Moss.
“The biggest challenge for Iran has been logistics and that’s been somewhat of a layered challenge, because even before this current conflict began there were geopolitical and trade sanctions that limited who they could deal with directly,” he says.
“Reports that I’ve had is that product still is moving but they’re just predominantly restricted to overland routes. So, it’s been smaller volumes and transit times are longer. One thing that is fascinating about commodity markets in general is that they are very fluid, very adaptable. Whether it be tariffs or, military conflicts, closures of the Strait product has a tendency to find a way to get where it needs to be. It is just a matter of how much it will cost and how much longer will it take.”
Despite these challenges the Iran war has not had a ‘significant impact’ on the broader market prices, Moss said.
India bans sugar exports
India has banned sugar exports of raw and white sugar until 30th September 2026 to safeguard domestic food supplies and keep prices under control.
While fertiliser shortages linked to the Iran conflict have played a role, concerns over El Niño have also contributed to the decision.
India is the second largest global producer of sugar, behind Brazil, producing 16% of global output.
The restrictions, activated on May 13, do not apply to sugar being exported to the EU and USA under CXL and TRQ quotas respectively. Shipments already being loaded or cleared before the announcement were allowed to go ahead while exports requested by foreign governments for food security reasons are also being allowed.
Around 10% of the world’s raw sugar passes through the Strait of Hormuz each year along with around 5% of global refined sugar, according to S&P Global.
It is still unclear whether this might be extended or what impact it may have longer term.
CO₂ shortages
Alarms have also also raised that the conflict and the blocking of key energy routes could cause severe CO₂ shortages globally.
This could have serious implications for food and beverage production, where CO₂ is used in preservation processes and production.
In response, the UK Government has intervened injecting £100 million into restarting domestic production at the Ensus bioethanol plant in Teesside. The UK’s heavy reliance on imports leaves it vulnerable to disruption.
The UK Government has launched a consultation calling for evidence from the industry including manufacturers, suppliers and distributors, on how to solve the issue and improve resilience.
It said it will inform the development of measures to improve the resilience, security, and sustainability of the UK’s supply of food and medical grade CO₂ for usage across important sectors, including Critical National Infrastructure.
The government said it is exploring market led options to diversify CO₂ supply, boost lower carbon sources, and improve transparency across the value chain.
A British Beer and Pub Association spokesperson said: “Our domestic CO₂ supply chain is vital for our brewers and pubs and something we closely monitor. It is reassuring that Government is continuing to work on ensuring CO₂ resilience and we will remain in close contact to understand how we can best support this.”
Women as ‘shock absorbers’
Beyond commodities and logistics, the crisis is deepening existing inequalities within agrifood systems.
A report from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) highlights how the Iran conflict is further limiting women’s access to inputs, income, and food security.
Rising fuel and fertiliser prices are disrupting agrifood systems, hitting smallholder farmers and other agrifood workers in low-and middle-income countries particularly hard.
Women and girls often bear the greatest burden with persistent inequalities in access to resources and services limiting their capacity to respond.
“The current shock threatens to erode the slow but steady global progress towards greater gender equality in agrifood systems,” the report warned.
Existing inequalities in access to markets, resources and income are being exacerbated, reducing women’s agency across the food system.
The report highlights a recent survey from Uganda that shows that women use less inorganic fertiliser on plots that they manage, compared to plots managed by men.
In India, shortages of cooking gas have forced women to gather firewood while it says in Pakistan, school closures have increased women’s childcare responsibilities.
Global food supply issues
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that millions are being pushed into acute hunger because of the conflict.
Its report Food Security Under Pressure: How the Middle East Crisis is Impacting Vulnerable Countries says that an analysis in three vulnerable countries found that an additional 2.5 million people in Somalia, 2.3 million in Afghanistan and 1.3 million in Sri Lanka are struggling to meet their basic food needs.
“Early warnings only matter if the world acts on them,” says Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service.
“We warned that this crisis could push millions more people into hunger; now we are watching it happen in real time. In many cases, the poorest families around the world, far from the centre of the crisis, are being hit the hardest.”
Countries already facing conflict, climate shocks and economic hardship, or those highly dependent on imports, are among the most exposed to the crisis as fuel, fertilizer, food, and humanitarian costs continue to soar.
“Even if the conflict were to end today, irreversible damage has been done and the impact on prices, livelihoods and humanitarian operations will continue to be felt for a long time,” Bauer added.