GLP-1 halo: Overview
- Kline and Company estimates 2.1bn consumers follow GLP-1-aligned eating patterns
- The halo greatly exceeds today’s 89m global GLP-1 users
- North America leads usage while Asia Pacific dominates halo
- Food spending increasingly shifts towards protein-rich, healthier categories
- Manufacturers must appeal to consumers following GLP-1 diets
The influence of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on eating habits goes far beyond users themselves.
Many consumers do not use the drugs, but at the same time follow similar eating patterns to users. This is known as the GLP-1 halo effect.
Globally, those within this GLP-1 halo are of a far greater number than the drugs’ actual user base, especially outside North America, according to data from the data business Kline and Company.
A two billion demand pool
The breadth of influence that GLP-1 drugs has could be vast. According to Kline and Company, there are currently around 89m users of GLP-1s globally. However, the halo encompasses a possible demand pool of 2.1bn, which accounts for 56% of the adults in the 25 countries that the company assessed.
Those included in this demand pool are people who have a strong concern about metabolic health, explains Elizabeth Thundow, vice president for food and nutrition at Kline and Company. The 2.1bn, according to the company, is split into three main groups: around 832m with untreated obesity, 103m managing blood sugar, and 1.05bn trying to lose weight.
The influence of GLP-1s on food is impacting buying habits, according to Kline and Company, with $10bn (€9.02bn) of annual food spending in the US already shifting towards categories like yoghurts, meat snacks, nutrition bars and fresh fruit.
Overall, categories such as lifestyle nutrition and dairy are likely to benefit from GLP-1 demand, while categories like snacks, bakery and breakfast cereals may suffer.
Where is the halo at its largest?
There is significant regional disparity over how many GLP-1 users there are compared with the size of the halo.
Perhaps predictably, the GLP-1 halo is proportionally the smallest in North America, although this is due to the fact that the actual user base of the drugs is the largest there. In North America, 15% of consumers are users, compared to 45% within the halo.
In Europe, the halo is proportionally larger – GLP-1 uptake is not as widespread in Europe, in part due to different medical systems and in part due to consumer scepticism. In Europe, 2% of those assessed were users, compared with a halo of 51%.
The disparity between users and the halo was even larger elsewhere in the world. In Latin America, users of GLP-1s accounted for 1.3%, compared with a halo of 56%. In Asia Pacific, users accounted for just 0.2%, compared with a 55% halo. Africa and the Middle East were not assessed.
It is clear from this data that, especially outside North America, there is a broad swathe of consumers whose eating habits are mostly untouched by GLP-1s. Yet at the same time, there are many consumers within the halo, which appears to be much larger than the GLP-1 user base itself.
Currently, Asia Pacific holds 72% of the global GLP-1 halo, according to Kline and Company, while North America holds 72% of actual users. This regional disparity may not be quite so stark for long, however, as the company predicts two-thirds of new users up to 2035 will come from outside North America.
Many will quit GLP-1s in the future
In most countries assessed, those who have been ‘touched’ by GLP-1s, meaning those who have either used the drug in the past or do so currently, are a substantially larger base than current users. This gap is likely to grow.
Kline and Company predicts that, by 2035, users of the drugs will double, while at the same time, one in three of those who have used GLP-1s at some point in their lives will be those who have recently stopped. This, of course, creates the need for weight-loss maintenance, which food manufacturers are already aiming to address.
The importance of consumers following GLP-1-related diets for food manufacturers far outweighs uptake of GLP-1s themselves.
With the global breadth of the halo effect, GLP-1 diets must remain a concern for the food industry, even in regions with few actual users.
