El Niño peak timing: Overview
- El Niño is expected to peak towards late 2026
- Food production impacts may intensify during early 2027
- Drought and erratic rainfall could disrupt global crop yields
- Diversified sourcing can help food companies strengthen resilience
- Supply disruptions may increase costs
El Niño poses a significant threat to the food sector.
The weather event, caused by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, can lead to drought and erratic rainfall, which has the potential to disrupt food production.
This particular El Niño has been described as a ‘super El Niño’, with some even predicting that it could be the biggest since the 19th century.
El Niño has started already. But it hasn’t peaked. It hasn’t even begun to peak. Food companies need to be prepared for when it does.
The peak of El Niño
The current El Niño is likely to peak towards the end of 2026, explains Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society.
However, the worst impacts on food production may take place instead in early 2027, when El Niño may disrupt rainfall and growing seasons, potentially affecting crop development, planting and harvests.
The effects of El Niño often take months to begin reducing food supplies and pushing up prices, she says.
This compounds the already existing pressures resulting from climate change. “El Niño adds another layer of disruption, potentially pushing vulnerable farming systems beyond their limits, particularly in regions already experiencing water shortages, degraded soils and food insecurity.”
Some effects are already being seen. Drought and unusually high temperatures are already affecting agriculture in parts of Central America, explains Bentley, alongside rainfall shortages in East Africa.
El Niño increases the risk of drought across southern Africa during the main growing season, she explains, which could affect maize harvests in 2027.
Furthermore, rice production in South East Asia and wheat production in Australia could also be affected, although impacts will likely vary.
How it can be prepared for
El Niño poses a major risk to the operations of food companies. How can they be prepared?
“We talk about the negative impacts of El Niño but if there is one positive, it is that we know it’s coming,” says Simon Geale, executive vice president of procurement at supply chain consultancy Proxima. “It is predictable, which means, where possible, resilience can be layered into food supply chains.”
Buyers should profile the most likely effect now, he says, and understand how it filters into production and supply chains. While companies can stockpile, this is only a valid strategy for non-perishables and non-seasonal produce.
The best preparation method, says Geale, is diversifying production. Alternative sources of supply should be assured. The effects of El Niño will not be uniform, he points out, and some countries may even see favourable conditions.
However, he says, buyers should be aware that different suppliers are in the same regions. Therefore, they are subject to the same extreme conditions that would make emergency supply sources ineffective.
Close collaboration with suppliers is highly beneficial, and there is a case for working closely with the most strategic suppliers through long-term partnerships, he argues, in order to invest in forecasting and infrastructure. This will make both parties more informed and more resilient.
At the end of the day, no amount of preparation can put risk at zero. “Whilst some sectors will benefit, and preventative measures can be taken, realistically there is going to be disruption. Businesses and consumers should draw a distinction between food availability and food affordability. Securing supply, which is the primary goal, is likely to come at a high price point for all parties in the value chain.”
During and following the peak of El Niño, food supply chains are likely to be significantly disrupted. Food companies must do all they can to minimise this risk. But whatever happens, things will get harder.
