Whole Foods Market CEO Jason Buechel said the fast-growing organic industry could hit $100 billion in sales sooner than expected, but to do so he cautioned the industry must overcome significant supply constraints while making organic products more accessible to price-conscious consumers.
Organic sales in the US hit $76.6 billion in 2025 – up 6.8% from the year before, according to the Organic Trade Association’s 2026 Organic Market Report published in March. This is on top of a 5.2% increase the previous year and a 2.4% increase the year before that, according to OTA.
This is far faster than the overall marketplace, which grew at 3.4% in 2025, according to OTA. The trade group projects organic sales will grow at a 5.6% compound annual rate through 2030, adding another $24 billion in sales and crossing $100 billion by the end of the decade.
“$100 billion in organic sales is going to be here before we know it,” Buechel told attendees at OTA’s Organic Week conference in Washington, DC, Sept. 14.
He said his optimism is based not only in OTA’s research, but also what he sees happening in Whole Foods Market stores nationwide.
In 2025, 34% of all products sold at Whole Foods Market were organic, which is more than eight times the industry average of 4% and up from 33% the year before, according to the retailer. Organic penetration was even higher in fresh produce and floral, where 61% of products sold were organic versus 16% industrywide. Nearly 32% of meat sold at the retailer was organic, versus 1% industrywide.
Buechel said sales of organic and other “better-for-you” products, including grass-fed offerings, are growing twice as fast as conventional products.
He attributed the growth in part to “customers wanting more and more transparency into what they are eating and understanding how their product was grown, harvested, produced and manufacturers, and what happened to the entire supply chain” – which USDA Organic Certified helps standardize and deliver.
He added that once consumers switch to organic, they tend to stick with it – even though it often has a price premium and economic pressures continue to rise in the US.
“We have been for some point here in economic uncertainty. And yes, I see different points where folks are trading down. But, if you’re buying organic, you’re sticking with organic. You might be deciding to go from fresh produce to frozen produce, or you might decide to switch from these berries to these berries because where the price point is, or you might decide to go from organic beef to organic chicken at this point,” but folks are not leaving organic, Buechel said.
‘We have a supply challenge’
Where he does see a challenge to the organic industry reaching $100 billion in sales is in sufficient supply to meet demand.
“We have a supply challenge, and I see it within our business on a regular basis,” he said. For example, “we have to pull back on promotions and different things” due to limited supply.
In addition, the retailer is looking to producers outside the US to meet demand for organic, Buechel said.
The organic beef market offers a glimpse of that challenge. According to OTA, beef was the fastest growing subcategory across organic in 2025, growing 44.3% to reach $1.4 billion. But the majority of this growth was attributed to imports from Australia and Uruguay.
The need to source outside the US is not only tied to rising demand, but also could be attributed to a decline in domestic organic acreage in recent years.
According to USDA’s Economic Research Service, organic acreage dropped 10.9% between 2019 and 2021, driven primarily by a drop in pasture and rangeland. Since 2021, total organic acreage has fallen by nearly 2 million acres, according to USDA citing data from Argus, which tracks organic markets. It notes: In 2025, 7.2 million acres were certified organic – down 9% from 2024.
In response to the decline between 2019 and 2021, USDA announced a $300 million investment to support organic transition, but future funding supporting the cause is at risk.
The three-year transition period required for organic certification is a notable hurdle for converting land. During that period, producers must manage land according to organic standards but cannot market crops as certified organic, while yields may decline and costs can rise.
In addition, the price premium for some fruits and vegetables is falling according to ERS, and may be a deterrent for converting acreage to organic, even as it could bolster demand.
“Finding ways in which we support and advocate for agricultural practices changing here in the US is going to be really important to our food systems” and “for us to get to that $100 billion,” said Buechel.
Strategies to overcome price as a barrier
But expanding supply is only one side of the equation. Buechel also sees price as a barrier to bringing more consumers into organic. He explained that while many consumers associate organic with higher quality, they also associate it with higher prices.
“One of the things we continue to do at Whole Foods is find out ways which we can invest in price and make organic more accessible for everyone. And that has been a big effort of ours over the years,” he said.
One way the retailer is making organic more accessible is by “sharpening opening price points,” in part through expanding its private label selection of organic goods, he said.
“The other thing we’ve done is a lot of work around promotions and this is another way to introduce customers around all different things that are accessible for them, and being able to try and recognize and differentiate products. And so that is anther area that has been a really good lever in being able to bring more customers into organic and at the same time continue to support greater value,” he added.
Beyond pricing, Buechel said retailers and suppliers will need to work more closely to give producers enough visibility to invest in additional organic capacity. Whole Foods, he said, is looking at better demand forecasting and longer-term commitments to suppliers as a way to help bring more supply to market.
