Back-to-school shopping looks different this year with smaller and delayed trips as many consumers seek better last-minute deals, while early activations for Halloween and other fall festivities – including the annual onslaught of pumpkin spice – compete for shoppers’ attention and valuable merchandising space.
At the same time, the new Dietary Guidelines for Americans are reshaping nutrition recommendations and could influence school meals, as well as product innovation, renovation and marketing across the food and beverage industry. But research from the International Food Information Council suggests that for parents and caregivers, nutrition guidance is only one consideration – and often has to compete with cost, convenience, time and what children will actually eat.
Taken together, these forces point to a back-to-school season that is longer and more tactical than previous years as price-sensitive consumers more carefully consider where to spend their money and on what.
What does the back-to-school shopper look like this year?
Back-to-school shopping is starting earlier, but it is not necessarily ending earlier. Consumers are spreading purchases across the summer and holding some items back as they look for better deals.
According to the National Retail Federation, 78% of shoppers expect to see higher prices on back-to-school items this school season – prompting about one third to plan their shopping around summer sales. In addition, about 40% of shoppers said they would look for more coupons or sales more often, 43% would shop at discount stores for items on their lists and 51% would comparative shop more.
Even with these strategies, spending is expected to be higher this year than five or even ten years ago.
NRF expects K-12 families to spend an average of $863.86 on back-to-school this year, up slightly from $858.07 in 2025 and well above the $673.57 average recorded in 2016. The higher dollar figure, however, does not necessarily mean consumers feel more comfortable spending.
Against that backdrop, the Census Bureau’s July retail sales report offered another sign of caution in consumer spending.
In July, retail sales fell 0.6% from June, which is “far worse than the consensus of 0.1% growth projected,” according to Chip West, director of category strategy, national sales at RR Donnelley.
He explained, “This bigger-than-expected retreat in spending signals growing consumer fatigue, with sticky inflation and steep borrowing costs continuing to put pressure on household budgets.”
It also suggests “consumers with tighter budgets [are becoming] more selective about discretionary purchases,” he added.
For many consumers, back-to-school shopping straddles the line between essential and optional – which might help explain why the start to seasonal sale period began earlier but is also stretching longer.
As of early August, NRF reports that shoppers had checked off only about 44% of the items on their back-to-school lists – up from about 23% in early July.
What influences back-to-school shoppers?
The delay is likely due to deal-hunting, according to West and market research.
“Many budget-conscious shoppers are pushing to buy later into August and early September to hunt for deeper discounts,” said West.
Indeed, a recent survey by YouGov found price and discounts lead back-to-school shopping behavior.
“Price is the biggest factor dictating purchase behavior among back-to-school shoppers, cited by 74%” of respondents, followed by 65% who cited quality and 64% who noted discounts, according to YouGov.
“Price matters across shopping styles, but particularly among consumers who do all or most of their shopping in-store – 78% of them cite it, compared with 69% of predominantly online shoppers. Promotions show a similar pattern, influencing 66% of store-oriented shoppers versus 56% of those who lean online,” adds YouGov.
Brands looking to leverage sales should note that where and how they advertise and promote products impacts their influence.
According to YouGov, 31% of shoppers say advertisements play a “huge role” in their purchase decisions. But they may be more effective on shoppers who divide their purchases evenly between online and in-store channels, according to YouGov, which found 38% of omnichannel shoppers definitely or tend to agree that advertisements play a huge role in what they buy versus 31% of those who shop primarily online and just 24% of those who shop mostly in store.
Seasonal competition crowds back-to-school calendar
Whether shopping online or in stores, shoppers must navigate a fragmented advertising and merchandising landscape as retailers and brands promote different products and seasonal priorities.
For example, the growing popularity of Summerween means Halloween-themed foods and candy that were once promoted after the start of the academic year are now promoted alongside back-to-school items – competing both for physical and digital shelf space and consumers’ attention and dollars, notes West.
He warns that even as retailers and brands take advantage of a longer season for selling historically-fall themed events, they should not pull back prematurely on back-to-school sales.
“The takeaway for retailers is that shopping may start earlier, but it does not end early. Winning retailers are staying ahead by launching continuous, high-impact campaigns across multiple media platforms throughout the summer and using influential in-store signage to stay top of mind. Rather than focusing on one moment in the shopping season, retailers need a strategy that reaches consumers across the entire journey, from early seasonal shoppers to those waiting for deeper discounts later in the season,” he said.
He added that striking this balance will be essential throughout the fast-approaching holiday shopping season.
How will the new Dietary Guidelines influence food purchases?
While the latest Dietary Guidelines for Americans will have a significant impact on the foods that schools serve students, research from IFIC suggests nutrition guidance may face stiff competition from other considerations when parents and caregivers make food decisions at home.
Participants in a small focus group of 24 American parents and caregivers with children younger than 18 years conducted this spring said that while they try to follow healthy eating advice, about half said they often fall short of their eating goals as they make concessions for “time, cost, energy, availability and whether a meal would actually get eaten,” according to IFIC’s report, Trust, Tensions & Tradeoffs: Perspectives on Food Choices From Parents & Caregivers.
Key messages from the most recent Dietary Guidelines, including “eat real food” and “limit processed foods” were familiar to study participants, but not overly influential, according to IFIC.
“Participants often soften restrictive guidance into things like moderation, smaller portions, or frequency so it could work for them and their families in daily life,” according to the report.
It added: “More motivating guidance felt specific, constructive and less moralizing. Participants also responded best to guidance that told them what to do, not just what to avoid. Message testing showed that balanced, practical framing performed best because it acknowledged tradeoffs and gave people a more manageable path forward. This means guidance should offer ideas about what to include, not just what to avoid or cut back on.”
The same takeaways likely apply to advertising and marketing. This suggests better-for-you positioning works best when it solves a practical problem. Rather than telling parents what to avoid, companies that offer solutions that are easy to understand – like low or reduced sugar, whole grain, high in fiber or protein and callouts for desirable vitamins and minerals – are more likely to win.
Home economics 101
Ultimately, the products that land in consumers’ carts and are packed in school lunches will be ones that resonate beyond a specific moment in time, like the first week back or Halloween, and solve a specific challenge for shoppers.
Likewise, for families, back-to-school not only marks the return of routines but, this year, it also marks a return to home economics 101: balancing price, convenience, health and an increasingly crowded calendar of reasons to spend.
