Days after Democrats won control of the Senate and House during the US midterms in part on the promise of lowering grocery prices, the Labor Department revealed grocery prices surged in October, after barely moving for the past three months.
While the data was gathered before the elections, and therefore does not reflect an impact from the “blue wave,” it supports widespread consumer perception that grocery prices – along with those of many everyday essentials including gas and housing – have been rising under the watch of the Trump administration and Republicans.
About half (48%) of Americans surveyed by Navigator Research in September said the cost of groceries are “going up a lot,” and an additional 35% said they are “going up some.”
The research, published Oct. 1, found the sentiment was shared across the political spectrum with 90% Democrats assessing grocery costs as “going up,” compared with 78% non-MAGA Republicans, who do not self-identify as a supporter of the Make America Great Again movement, and 71% of MAGA Republicans, who self-identify as a supporter of the movement.
Their feelings were backed up Nov. 10 by the Labor Department, which revealed Consumer Price Index for food shot up 0.5% in October over the previous month after not changing in September and rising only 0.1% in August and July. The 0.4% increase in prices for food consumed at home, or groceries, was not as sharp, but it came after an encouraging 0.1% month-over-month drop in September, no change in August and a 0.1% drop in July.
The increase was driven by a notable 1% increase in snack prices in October, which is part of a 0.7% increase in “other food at home,” according to the Bureau of Labor statistics. These are followed by a 0.6% increase in the index for dairy and related products, a 0.6% increase the fruits and vegetables index, and a 0.5% increase in the meat, poultry, fish and eggs index, according to BLS. It added the beef index increased 0.9% in the period.
Not all groceries prices increased in the month. Non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 0.3%, but that was after spiking 0.9% in September, and the index for cereal and bakery products held steady with no change in October.
Energy costs move through the supply chain
The jump in grocery prices likely reflects rising energy prices in recent months, which have been working their way down the supply chain and are finally starting to show up at the shelf, suggested FMI Vice President, Tax, Trade, Sustainability and Policy Development Andy Harig.
“Energy is a critical input at every stage of the food system, from powering farm equipment to processing, packaging and transporting products to store shelves. When fuel and diesel costs rise, those higher costs are ultimately reflected in what it takes to produce and deliver food, and it can take months for them to show up in grocery prices, which we are now witnessing,” he explained in a statement.
In October, the energy prices rose 0.7% month-over-month after increasing 5.2% in September and 2.1% on August, according to BLS. Gas prices, specifically, rose 1% over the month, after climbing 9.1% in September.
The surge in oil prices is due partly to the US-Israeli war with Iran, while import tariffs implemented by the Trump administration over past year and a half, including a baseline 10% tariff implemented April 5, 2025, in addition to many country-specific reciprocal and deficit-based rate increases the began in the following days. While the US Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on Feb. 20, 2026, it did not invalidate every tariff imposed by the administration. The president has pursued other avenues to raise tariffs on countries that he said are treating the US unfairly.
Inflation remains above expectations
Higher grocery prices contributed to an overall 0.4% increase in inflation October over the previous month. September also rose 0.6% over August, according to the Labor Department.
While overall inflation cooled slightly from September to October, it came in higher than expected. Economists polled by FactSet predicted October prices would rise only 0.3% month-over-month.
The Labor Department did not report year-over-year inflation for October because the Federal government was shut down in October 2025 and therefore it did not have a comparison number to offer.
Affordability challenges awaits new Congress
When new and returning Democrats join their Republican and Independent colleagues in Congress at the start of the new term Jan. 3, 2027, they will need to translate campaign promises, including those about lowering grocery and gas prices, into policies that can deliver.
The latest CPI figures suggest that grocery affordability will remain a significant challenge for lawmakers and stakeholders across the food system, including manufacturers and retailers as consumers seek relief from higher everyday expenses.
