Shoppers are becoming increasingly savvy and spreading their spending across different grocery formats and banners, according to an early look at NIQ’s 2026 Global Consumer Outlook.
Nicole Collida, SVP, managing director, US Retail, revealed some of the study’s officially unreleased findings in September at the Groceryshop convention in Las Vegas.
She said consumers are increasingly engaging in “spending by exception” for products that make sense for their lifestyles, versus cautious spending on everything.
“For years, we were talking about cautious spending, intentional spending. Now, this idea of exception spending has really come to the forefront in what consumers say they’re going to do and how they’re saying that they’re going to spend their dollars,” she said.
Food prices the biggest concern
Food prices remain a worry among consumers, more than a third of whom (34%) cited them as their top concern going into 2027. That figure is up 4 percentage points year over year and makes it the top area of consideration on consumer spending, the survey found.
The statistic more than doubles the 14% of consumers who voiced concerns about an economic downturn. Worries about the economy ranked at No. 4 on the list, down two spots and seven percentage points from a year ago.
“The global narrative is shifting from inflation anxiety to affordability anxiety. While price increases have cooled, consumers are still waiting for purchasing power to fully catch up with the higher price levels established during the inflation surge of late,” according to NIQ.
As the nation emerges from an inflationary period, prices remain high, Collida explained. That’s left consumers “feeling stuck with the food prices they have,” which require them to be more careful with their spending, she said.
“They’re defining value differently, and as a result of that, they’re making trade-offs. Sometimes it’s lower-priced items, sometimes it’s private label instead of branded,” she said. “Sometimes, and I think what’s maybe more concerning is whether or not they should even make the [shopping] trip at all, whether or not they’ll give up on the trip to go invest in something else in their household.”
Assembling a deal
Consumers have become increasingly savvy in their shopping habits, searching for savings across the food landscape.
“Consumers are no longer hunting for a deal, they’re assembling one,” according to the report. NIQ found consumers adopting strategies such as trading down on CPG brands (39%), shopping more often at discount stores (34%) and cutting some products out entirely to focus more on essentials (34%).
“A lot of people in the CPG industry are worried that spending is contracting, but we’re not actually seeing spend contract,” she said. “We’re seeing it be very focused or concentrated in certain areas.”
Consumers are taking more trips to the store because they are going to more places to assemble a grocery basket for a discount, Collida explained. They’re also buying less.
“I might fill my pantry staples in one spot where I’m confident I can get the best price,” she said. “But when I think about what I want to put in my child’s lunchbox … I’m willing to pay more.”
Consumers are also splurging more on functional products that offer a nutritional benefit, she added.
Consumers redefining value in CPG
The concept of value is changing in consumers’ minds, according to Collida, who noted that while it once meant a lower price, value now takes on a number of dimensions.
“In today’s ecosystem, value can mean price for sure – that’s still an important factor – but it also means health or nutrition,” she said.
Value can also come in the form of social and environmentally friendly attributes, she explained.
“It certainly comes back to value, but it’s value as designed by the consumer for the mission or occasion that they’re on,” she said.
Mixing and matching grocery formats
Consumers are shopping at more grocery stores than ever, Collida said, noting that trend is boosting club and mass merchandise grocery operations like Costco, Target and Walmart.
This shift to different channels is particularly benefitting club outlets.
“They have a membership program that signals value before a consumer even steps in, and then there’s still that stock-up or value-deal-seeking behavior that happens in clubs,” she said.
Meanwhile, mass merchandise operations are winning in online sales. The trends are all putting increased pressure on pure-play grocery stores like Kroger and Albertsons, according to NIQ.
“Grocery has operated with local relevance and scale for many years, but that scale won’t be enough to sustain grocery trips going forward,” she said. “Grocery is under pressure across every department to the benefit of club and to some extent mass.”
