The study from IWSR suggests that the impact of premiumisation has been distorted by the effects of inflation.
While consumers’ will still pay more for a great experience, they are increasingly seeking proper justification for trading up to a more expensive products, IWSR said.
The result is that the consumer definition of premiumisation is evolving to include “meaningful moments and connection, delightful/selective occasions, and intentional and justifiable quality upgrades.”
Traditionally, the industry has defined premiumisation as growing value ahead of volume as part of a higher prices and margin strategy.
But since 2022, global inflation has consistently outpaced the growth seen in IWSR’s global beverage alcohol price per litre (PPL) measure. In 2022, PPL declined by -1%, versus an +8% gain for global inflation. But by 2023, PPL was up +3%, while inflation rose +6%. By 2024, the PPL increased by +2%, but inflation was up +5%; and in 2025, PPL rose by +1%, versus a +4% gain for inflation.
“At the highest level, the industry’s premiumisation tailwind has in fact under-indexed versus inflation,” said Luke Tegner, Global Head of Consulting at IWSR.
“As a result, the idea that the value growth seen in 2022-25 is evidence of a successful premiumisation strategy needs to be revisited on a category, market and brand level, with inflation stripped out.”
The category data also shows a mixed story. In 2025, the premium-and-above price tiers generally outperformed standard/value, but the strongest evidence of premiumisation occurred in RTDs and beer.
Premium-plus RTD volumes were up +15% on 2024, while their value rose by +21% while premium-plus beer had a +1% volume gain and a +3% value increase.
Wine held up better at higher price points with premium-plus volumes down -2% in 2025, while premium-plus spirits volume and value, excluding national spirits, declined by 1% in 2025. National spirits volume fell -6% and value -7% – dragged down largely by big losses for baijiu in China, it said.
“The premium-and-above decline for spirits is a sign that consumers are scrutinising expensive spirits lines more closely than they are for beer or RTDs,” said Tegner.
“This might mean, for example, choosing a no-age-statement single malt from a known distillery over a 12-year-old expression.”
The picture looks different again at on-trade level as according to IWSR’s on-trade value data, which provides pricing data in restaurants and bars for 20 markets, on-trade value fell -4% in 2025.
The research showed that on-trade premiumisation across 20 markets is stalling with Super-premium+ value falling the hardest of all price bands, down -6%, compared with -3% for standard.
However, RTDs have the highest average price per serve globally and is the only major beverage alcohol category still experiencing growth.
In terms of the top premium-plus volume growth prospects between 2025 and 2030, the US market dominates, with opportunities such as tequila, no-alcohol still and sparkling wine, US whiskey, and cocktails and long drinks.
Developing market highlights include tequila in Mexico, Scotch whisky in Türkiye and India, still wine in Brazil, and Indian whisky in India, where Indian Single Malt has now overtaken Scotch single malt in volume and value.
Despite the declines in drinking and the demands of consumers, IWSR, said the prospects for premium-and-above growth over the next decade remain positive.
IWSR is forecasting +6% growth in premium-plus servings between 2025 and 2035 in 16 key developed markets (including the US, UK, Germany, France and Japan).
Across 16 major developing markets, including India, China, Mexico, and Brazil it predicted gains are broader-based, with premium-plus servings expected to expand by +13% over the same timescale.
“In developed markets, consumers are drinking less overall but are also protecting their spend on products that deliver the most pleasure,” explains Tegner.
“For developing markets, aspirational trading up is persisting in India, Mexico, Türkiye and Brazil. This is authentic premiumisation – not inflation in disguise.”
However, moving forward the beverage sector need to look closer at their own strategies.
“The task for the industry is to strip consumer price inflation out of the value growth experienced over the past four years, and then identify what is left of the premiumisation story,” said Tegner.
“Brand owners then need to ask themselves: ‘is our premiumisation strategy a pricing story – or a genuine consumer experience story?’”