Will cocoa prices remain low?

The cocoa crisis, which began in early 2024, broke several records in the price of cocoa, and catapulted the confectionery industry into turmoil. The crisis led to a boom in cocoa alternatives to replace the newly expensive ingredient, and pushed many FMCG majors into raising prices on their products. It even led to some products, such as Nestlé’s Toffee Crisp and Blue Riband, being legally restricted from calling themselves chocolate. Yet over the past few months, the price of cocoa has fallen significantly. As of January 2026, cocoa beans have been selling at around $4,400 (€3,761) per tonne, the lowest for two years, according to Trading Economics. Prices are still declining, and there is little sign of a return to previous highs in the short term. The current low cocoa prices are the result of a combination of improved supply and lower demand, explains Justine White, senior market insight analyst at commodity intelligence company Vespertool. In particular, demand from Asia has been weak, while in Europe, less cocoa has been processed than was expected. Furthermore, many believed that in January of 2026, the cocoa market would experience a surge of buying, pushing prices up, explains Stephen Butler, CCO and co-founder of AI platform ChAI. This was expected to make up around 35% of currently outstanding contracts. This did not materialise, contributing to prices falling by 20% due to the return of speculative selling. A return to the sort of price spikes seen in 2024 and 2025 is currently unlikely. This is down to a combination of good weather in West Africa, profit margins from cocoa grinding being low, and weak demand globally. “Prices are unlikely to rally much from current levels” Butler explains. Furthermore, the current trend for reformulation in cocoa products may impact demand, suggests Vespertool’s White. However, demand may recover in the second half of the year; as processors tend to buy six to eight months ahead, the currently low prices will only start helping them in the second half. Ultimately, suggests ChAI’s Butler, the price will likely drift lower before demand again begins to rise, reaching what the market considers a ‘fair value.’ The situation on the ground in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, could also potentially reduce yields, thus pushing up prices. Many Ivorian farmers cannot afford the inputs necessary to produce large amounts of cocoa, White explains, which could impact the 2026/27 harvest. Farmgate prices may be lowered in April, suggests cocoa analyst Ousmane Attai Ouedraogo. This will squeeze farmer incomes even further. Furthermore, White points out, there is high congestion at ports due to high arrivals and lags in purchases by exporters. Overall, the current conditions pushing down prices are expected to continue in the short term before demand ratchets back up.