Beyond the BRIC… looking to the MINT

Macroeconomic data, from the International Monetary Fund details how the MINT economies are set to develop in the future. GDP rates are forecast to increase over the next five years for the majority of the MINTs. In particular, rates in Nigeria are set to increase from 6.2% in 2013 to 7% in 2018. Over the same period, inflation is set to fall across most of the countries, with rates in Mexico forecast to remain the lowest, at 3.7% in 2018. Positive as the macroeconomic findings may be, the interest deepens when we understand how the MINTs will specifically affect the global meat industry. Between the four countries, total meat production – including beef, chicken, pig and sheep – is currently estimated at 12.7 million tonnes (mt), with this forecast to increase by 23% over the next 10 years to reach an estimated 15.6mt in 2022. Over the same period, overall world meat production is anticipated to increase by a smaller 15%. Current situation Mexican meat production has grown by 28% since 2000, from 4.3mt to an estimated 6mt in 2013. In 2011, it ranked as the sixth-largest meat producer globally. The country’s impact on the sector saw it lead the FAO Livestock Development Committee between 2014-15. This role will see Mexico spearhead the development of strategies to promote public policies for the development of the livestock sector. Across the different meat sectors, Mexico had strong production levels in 2012 with 2.9mt of poultry; 1.8mt of beef and 1.2mt of pork. In global terms, it ranked within the top 10 for global poultry and beef production. The poultry industry, in particular, is set to benefit from further investment of around US$232,900m this year to help modernise the supply chain infrastructure of the sector. Consumption of poultry has risen in recent years, due to increased fast food-style restaurants in the country, with six out of every 10 Mexicans now including poultry in their diet. Indonesia has seen a 51% growth in its meat production from 1.6mt in 2000, to 3.2mt in 2013, with a global production ranking of 18th in 2011. Poultry production is Indonesia’s predominant meat sector with 1.7mt in 2012, and ranking as the ninth largest global producer. However, the industry still suffers from problems with avian influenza, with Indonesia having the highest case of ‘bird flu’ in humans globally. Despite the fact that the majority of the population in Indonesia are Muslims and cannot consume pork, the sector is doing well, as there are large opportunities for pork consumption through growing tourist numbers. Compared to the other MINT countries, meat production in Nigeria is at lower levels, with 1.2mt produced in 2013. However, the growth in the sector has meant volumes have grown by 43%, from 700,000t in 2000. In terms of global rankings, Nigeria, ranks as the 10th-largest sheep-producing country with 180,000t. The majority of their meat production is made up of beef (365,650t) and poultry (300,360t), with the remaining 250,000t in pigmeat. By 2015, there are estimated to be 450,000 people working in the sheep and goat value supply chain, with a change in focus from a traditional low input-output system to a more commercial intensive production system. Linked to the change, production levels are set to reach volumes of 457,800t for sheep and goat production over the same period. Meat production in Turkey has grown from 1.3mt in 2000 to 2.2mt in 2013. Seventy per cent of that volume was poultry production at 1.8mt, making it the 10th largest global producer. The poultry sector is controlled by around 20 integrated companies, and accounts for around 6% of the country’s total agricultural output. Future prospects Looking ahead, the OECD-FAO Outlook forecasts that growth within the MINTs will continue, and at a faster rate than world growth of 15%. Working from a low volume base, Nigeria is set to see the largest growth of all, at 38%, reaching 1.7mt in 2022, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4%. Turkey and Indonesia will have similar growth rates over the period of 28% and 25% respectively, and at a CAGR of 3%. In 2022, meat production is set to reach 2.9mt in Turkey and 4mt in Indonesia, as a result. Mexico’s growth rate is slightly lower, and more aligned with world growth, indicating the development and size of the market. An 18% growth rate in volume is forecast to 2022, reaching levels of 7mt. On paper, the MINTs appear to have it all, with their strong growth prospects in terms of both macroeconomics and meat production volumes. However, moving from paper to reality can be a much more challenging situation. Some of the MINTs have suffered with animal disease in the past. All traces of this need to be wiped out if the MINTs have any hope of growing and expanding their meat sectors, particularly when exports are considered, with much tighter health and welfare restrictions now in place across the globe. Together, the MINT markets are currently accounting for around 4% of world meat production. Although a small percentage now, but with strong growth prospects and a desire to grow and develop, it would be sensible to assess the mid- to long-term potential of these markets. In our work as leading value chain consultants, we have already seen a number of our clients at all stages of the supply chain begin to assess the scale and direction of opportunity in these markets. We would expect to carry out more work in the MINTs over the next few years, as interest in them only increases and businesses begin to look beyond the BRICs. Businesses need to understand more about the sheer pace of economic and agricultural/livestock growth which would begin to point to opportunities across the board. As with any market, however, only those that will invest the time and effort to really understand what is going on, and what the real opportunities are – and plan for them – will be the winners in the end. The MINTs are no exception. • Emma Hancocks is a consultant with Promar International, the leading agri-food value chain consulting company and a subsidiary of Genus plc. Emma is the current BIAC Young Consultant of the Year. She can be contacted at emma.hancocks@genusplc.com

Beyond the BRIC… looking to the MINT

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