Iran war food supply disruption – summary
- Hormuz Strait disruption impacting over 2,000 ships carrying food and energy inputs
- Grains, oils, sugar, cocoa, coffee delays threaten food and beverage manufacturers
- Fertiliser shortages today risk constraining harvests and food supplies later
- Energy driven packaging bottlenecks hit bottling, dairy, cold chain fastest
- Prolonged closure could escalate logistics shock into global food security crisis
The Iran war has now entered its sixth week, and with every passing day its threat to global food security grows.
Shortages begin
Up to now, much of the discussions surrounding the impact of the Iran war have focussed on oil prices – mostly because that’s where the repercussions were felt first.
By contrast, existing stores of ingredients and manufactured products kept the food and beverage industry fully operational and out of the headlines.
But we’re 45 days in, and attentions are turning to the vital supplies sitting on the 2,000+ ships (figures from the United Nations) trapped in the Middle East – unable to move as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Grains such as wheat, maize and barley account for a large share of bulk cargoes moving through the Strait. Edible oils are another important cargo – shipments of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil have been sitting idle at sea and risk spoiling before they reach their destination... assuming they ever do.
Beyond staples, key soft commodities such as sugar, cocoa and coffee destined for confectionery and beverage manufacturers, are among the cargos reportedly stuck.
Added to that, vital agricultural inputs like fertilisers are also trapped, putting future harvests under threat.
And, it’s not just about the food itself.
Since the primary impact from the Strait of Hormuz has been on energy markets, the earliest pressure points, says Lisa Anderson, president of supply chain specialists LMA Consulting Group, are likely to be those most impacted downstream from oil and liquified natural gas – in other words things like packaging and petrochemical-based materials.
This, she says, will hit categories like beverage bottling, cold-chain products, dairy, protein, and processed foods first.
On top of this, some are concerned the food and beverage industry is underestimating the scale of the risk.
Industry underestimating threat
“The largest misconception is that if your primary supplier is not in the Middle East, the closure of the Strait won’t impact you,” warns Anderson. “You are only as strong as your weakest link in your supply chain, and so your suppliers’ suppliers and your suppliers’ suppliers’ suppliers could be dependent on ingredients impacted.”
In practice, that means companies far removed from the region on paper may still be exposed through hidden dependencies deep in the supply chain. From fertilisers used to grow crops, to petrochemical resins that underpin food packaging, to specialist inputs sourced by lower‑tier suppliers, disruption at a single chokepoint can cascade across an interconnected global system. The result is that even manufacturers with no direct sourcing ties to the Middle East may face higher costs, shortages or delays as those upstream vulnerabilities surface.
“Companies must stabilise operations with frequent reviews of supplier status, lead times, and logistics constraints” says Anderson. “The best companies also utilise AI-enabled advanced planning systems to reallocate and optimise inventory across their supply chain to ensure customers are supported, costs are optimised, and risks are minimised.”
If the Strait reopened today
If the Strait of Hormuz were reopened today and all traffic allowed to flow freely, Anderson estimates it would take 4-6 weeks for supply chains to “stabilise”. For a return to “normal”, we’re looking at around 8-13 weeks.
Unfortunately, the Strait won’t reopen today, because even if a deal is agreed with immediate effect, the restart would be neither immediate nor seamless. Vessels would need to be repositioned, ports cleared of backlogs and insurance, security and crew availability issues resolved before trade could resume at scale. Not to mention the water is riddled with mines that will need to be cleared.
During that time, the food and beverage system would be absorbing disruption comparable in scale to past crises such as the Suez Canal blockage or the Black Sea grain shutdowns – but over a longer period and with greater exposure to energy markets. Manufacturers would be grappling with higher costs, longer lead times and limited availability.
Food security threat
For food and beverage companies, the danger is that short‑term disruption becomes long‑term structural damage.
As raw materials diminish, manufacturers may be forced to reformulate products, suspend lines, or prioritise certain markets over others.
Meanwhile, smaller brands with less buying power and fewer supplier options are likely to feel the strain hardest, and may not survive.
At the consumer end, rising prices and tightening availability may trigger behavioural shifts – from panic buying and retail rationing to accelerated trading‑down – which could further distort demand and exacerbate shortages.
The worst‑case scenario, however, is one where disruption to fertiliser supplies and agricultural inputs today constrain harvests months from now, just as energy‑driven cost inflation pushes food prices further out of reach.
In that scenario, food insecurity would spread across the globe, and what started as a logistics crisis would evolve into a broader threat – one that would linger long after the war is resolved.
