Iran conflict fertiliser shortages summary
- Strait of Hormuz reopening follows ceasefire but remains a supply chokepoint
- Strait closure raised fertiliser prices increasing inputs and threatening food security
- Maize rice and wheat face higher costs during fertiliser shortages
- Legumes millet and sorghum need fewer inputs via natural nitrogen fixation
- Agroecological farming cuts fertiliser dependence builds resilience to future geopolitical shocks
The vital chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, after a ceasefire deal was agreed between the US and Iran.
The Strait is vital for the global trade of oil and fertiliser, both of which are extensively sourced from the Persian Gulf.
In the month during which the Strait was closed, fertiliser prices were pushed up, leading to agricultural inputs being more expensive. Prices for phosphate and nitrogen-based fertilisers in particular rose by around 20-45%, according to commodity analytics platform ChAI. Some suggested that the Strait’s closure even threatened food security.
The two-week ceasefire deal is not a permanent solution, and there is every chance that the Strait will be closed again once it expires. How can the global food sector prepare for such an eventuality?
Which crops need less fertiliser?
A fertiliser shortage will make growing crops more expensive, in particular affecting maize, rice and wheat.
Can the food sector replace such crops with equivalents that need less fertiliser?
Legumes such as soy, beans, peas and lentils can be grown with less input from synthetic fertiliser, explains Emile Frison, a panel member for the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES-Food).
This is because they fix nitrogen naturally from the air, he explains. This means that the crops take nitrogen from the air and use it to grow.
Millet and sorghum also perform well with fewer agricultural inputs.
Lower-input crops are already used in many parts of the world, particularly by small-scale farmers.
“However, they remain under-supported compared to dominant commodity crops, which benefit from decades of subsidies and research designed around high chemical input models,” says Frison.
Because of the production models that exist, however, simply switching to lower-input crops is easier said than done.
“Commodity crops like wheat, rice, and maize are embedded in high-chemical-input production systems, which makes switching challenging in the short term. The vulnerability we are seeing today comes from an industrial model tethered to fossil fuels, not from the crops themselves.”
Long-term mitigation
The crisis precipitated by the war in Iran has brought the vulnerability of the food system as a whole into focus, highlighting its reliance on synthetic fertilisers from regions such as the Middle East.
The dependence on synthetic fertilisers, Frison says, exposes the food system to such geopolitical shocks as we are currently seeing.
“What is needed is a more fundamental shift towards agroecological production systems - farming with nature to build soil fertility naturally, through diversified production systems, crop rotations that include legumes, permanent soil cover, the use of organic fertilisers and biostimulants, and reduced soil disturbance.”
Such practices, which are already being used by many farmers, can both improve economic performance and reduce agriculture’s dependence on fossil fuels, he suggests.
However the food sector prepares for future shocks, one thing is certain – prepare it must.
