Key takeaways:
- The global raisin market is highly concentrated, with supply heavily reliant on a small number of regions including Turkey, the US and Iran.
- Climate volatility and geopolitical tensions are tightening availability, pushing prices higher and increasing risk for food manufacturers.
- As demand remains strong across cereals, snacks and bakery, even small supply disruptions are prompting buyers to seek alternative sources and secure contracts earlier.
They start life as little more than grapes left to dry in the sun. Yet the small, wrinkled by-product of the vineyard is embedded across the modern food industry. Snack bars and trail mixes alone use more than 150,000 tonnes every year, while roughly three in 10 breakfast cereals globally contain raisins as a key ingredient.
Add the bakery aisle – fruit loaves, pastries, cookies and hot cross buns – and the dried fruit begins to look less like a simple inclusion and more like one of the food industry’s quiet workhorses.
Across the sector, bakery and confectionery account for around 60% of global raisin usage, with cereals and snacks making up much of the remainder. In Europe and North America, more than half of households purchase raisins at least once per quarter, helping sustain steady demand across packaged food categories.
For years, that demand has been relatively easy to meet. Raisins store well, travel easily and are produced across several of the world’s major grape-growing regions. Even so, the supply chain supporting them is far more concentrated than it first appears.
A supply chain concentrated in a few vineyards
Global raisin production sits at around 1.2-1.3 million tonnes annually, according to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC).
Three regions dominate that trade: California’s Central Valley, Turkey’s Aegean vineyards and parts of western Iran.
Turkey remains the world’s leading exporter, typically producing 300,000-320,000 tonnes in a normal year and supplying large volumes into European food manufacturing supply chains. The US – largely through California – produces well over 200,000 tonnes annually, much of it used in cereals, bakery products and snack foods.
Iran sits just behind those two producers. Output varies by season but typically falls between 120,000 and more than 200,000 tonnes, with a significant share entering global trade. In strong seasons, as much as 175,000 tonnes has been available for export, supplying buyers across Europe, the Middle East and Asia. In value terms, that equates to more than 11% of global raisin exports, reaching over 80 markets.
Other producers play a more limited – but still important – role. China is a major grower, particularly in the Xinjiang region, although much of its production is consumed domestically rather than exported. South Africa, meanwhile, has expanded its presence in global trade over the past decade and is now the largest producer in the southern hemisphere, supplying key European markets.
The result is a market shaped by a relatively small number of producing regions, each playing a significant role in global availability and pricing. For years, that system has functioned with little disruption. Grapes move from vineyard to drying racks and into global commodity networks before being folded into cereals, snack bars and fruit breads.
That balance is starting to look more fragile.
Climate volatility hits the crop
Even before geopolitics entered the picture, raisin growers were dealing with increasingly unpredictable weather.
Turkey’s vineyards around Manisa – one of the most important raisin-producing regions globally – saw harvest fluctuations during the 2023 and 2024 seasons, according to the INC. Heavy rainfall during critical growing periods increased disease pressure and reduced fruit quality.
China has faced similar disruption. Growers in Xinjiang’s Turpan region have reported erratic temperature swings and rainfall patterns affecting both yields and harvest quality.
South Africa, often seen as a stabilising counter-seasonal supplier, hasn’t been immune. The country’s 2025/26 crop forecast has been revised down to around 86,500 tonnes, a roughly 14% drop on earlier expectations, after downy mildew pressure and localised hail damage affected production in key growing areas.
The pattern mirrors what is happening across other agricultural markets. Like cocoa, coffee and olive oil, grape production is becoming more exposed to climate volatility as heatwaves, drought and extreme weather disrupt harvest cycles.
Prices have already begun to respond. Wholesale raisins traded between $1,600 and $2,200 per tonne during the 2023-2025 seasons, compared with $1,200-$1,400 per tonne between 2018 and 2020, when conditions were more stable.
With production challenges affecting Turkey, China and South Africa – alongside uncertainty surrounding Iranian exports – traders expect further upward pressure. In a constrained supply scenario, prices could exceed $2,400 per tonne over the next 12-18 months, particularly for higher-grade fruit used in cereals and bakery products.
For manufacturers, that translates quickly into ingredient cost inflation.
How raisins are actually made
Raisins may appear simple but producing them at scale is highly dependent on climate and timing. Most are made from seedless grape varieties such as Thompson Seedless, grown in hot, dry regions.
After harvest, grapes are laid on trays or racks and left to dry naturally in the sun for two to three weeks, losing 75%-80% of their moisture. They are then collected, cleaned, sorted and processed before being shipped to food manufacturers.
However, the process is highly weather-sensitive. Rain during drying can damage fruit and reduce both yield and quality.
Raisins in the product pipeline
At the same time, demand for raisins is not easing.
The ingredient remains embedded across breakfast cereals, snack bars, granola clusters and fruit-based bakery products, categories that account for a large share of global dried-fruit consumption.
Its role is also evolving. Raisins are increasingly used for their functional properties, not just flavour. Chopped fruit and raisin paste provide sweetness, moisture and binding in products such as granola bars, allowing manufacturers to reduce reliance on refined sugar syrups.
That has become particularly relevant as regulators and health authorities push for lower added sugar in packaged foods. Unlike refined sugar, raisins bring naturally occurring sugars alongside fibre and micronutrients, making them easier to position within clean label formulations.
In other words, raisins aren’t being phased out. If anything, they’re becoming more valuable.
When geopolitics enters the supply chain
Against that backdrop, developments in Iran are drawing closer scrutiny from commodity traders and ingredient buyers. Reports that agricultural exports could be disrupted during the current tensions have raised questions about how quickly global dried-fruit markets could tighten.
Buyers are already reacting, according to Wessel Lemmer, chief executive of industry body Raisins South Africa. “Our suppliers have received increased enquiries from international buyers looking to secure raisin supply,” he told us.
The shift isn’t limited to traders. Bakery manufacturers and ingredient suppliers are also seeking alternative sources as a hedge against disruption. Raisins store well and are often secured months in advance, so any immediate impact may be limited. But in a market this concentrated, supply shifts don’t need to be large to move prices.
South Africa has steadily expanded its raisin industry over the past decade, producing sun-dried fruit along the Orange River in the Northern Cape, where hot, dry conditions provide ideal drying environments.
Raisins South Africa expects production of around 86,500 tonnes this season, following a downward revision linked to crop disease and localised weather damage. Despite that reduction, capacity exists to respond to shifting demand.
“Yes, South Africa does have the capacity to increase shipments to markets such as the UK and EU over the next 6-12 months,” said Lemmer.
However, any short-term adjustment has limits. Existing export commitments will still be prioritised, and markets traditionally supplied by Iran may need to diversify sourcing in the interim.
The broader supply picture remains tight. Turkey’s reduced output in 2025 – around 165,000 tonnes compared with a typical 300,000-320,000 tonnes – alongside weather challenges in China and uncertainty in Iran, points to constrained availability in the near term.
“Overall, global supply is expected to remain tight until the next harvests in Turkey and Iran, which typically begin around August 2026,” Lemmer said. “We therefore expect tight global supply conditions between March and September, with prices likely to respond upwards.”
The geopolitics of the hot cross bun
The raisin trade – once an almost invisible part of the ingredient supply chain – is becoming harder to take for granted, as a small, dried grape that underpins much of the modern food industry now sits at the intersection of climate pressure, concentrated supply and geopolitics.
And nowhere is that more visible than in one of its most familiar uses.
Hot cross buns have become a major seasonal retail category, with UK supermarkets selling tens of millions each Easter. What was once a religious bread is now a high-volume, tightly managed product, with production cycles planned months in advance and dependent on consistent ingredient supply.
At the centre of that supply are raisins and sultanas – sourced largely from a narrow production belt spanning Turkey, California and Iran. The result is an unusual dynamic: one of Christianity’s most recognisable foods depends on ingredient flows rooted in Muslim-majority regions of the Middle East and Mediterranean, where output is shaped by harvest conditions, export flows and regional instability.
For retailers and bakers, the issue is less about tradition than supply certainty. When availability tightens, even a staple seasonal line can quickly become exposed. What looks like a simple Easter product is, in reality, tied to one of the food industry’s most fragile global supply chains.