How will chocolate change in the 21st century summary
- Chocolate faces shifting growing regions as climate change alters global suitability
- Cocoa farming adopts agroforestry and new technologies to boost long‑term resilience
- Craft chocolate grows rapidly as consumers seek ethical and premium options
- Major producers explore cell‑cultivated cocoa while consumer acceptance remains mixed
- Global price volatility drives regional differences in willingness to embrace alternatives
Chocolate is increasingly in peril. Volatile weather conditions in key growing regions, coupled with input costs and even gold mining, have impacted yields and caused price spikes globally.
For now, the price of cocoa is down, and still falling. But climate change remains a very real threat, and any relief is likely to be temporary.
What is the future for chocolate? How is the chocolate landscape slated to change in the coming years?
Cocoa will not become extinct
Rumours have long circulated that cocoa will not survive the 21st century. But hearsay aside, chocolate is in trouble. Research suggests that a business-as-usual scenario could see cocoa-growing regions in Africa become unsuitable for production by as soon as 2050.
The existential threat to cocoa is undeniable, ranging from climate change, crop pests, ageing trees, declining soil fertility, small farm size, input costs, low farmer income, and even the effects of artisanal gold mining. But it’s exactly for these reasons, that a business-as-usual scenario is not an option.
“I do not expect cocoa to go extinct at all”, says Cedric Steijn, media advisor at research institution the Kit Institute. Yes, the production of chocolate with change; but not disappear.
Climate change will shift suitable growing regions
For example, it is likely to shift geography. Other sourcing countries are already looking more attractive than Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, from which more than half of the world’s chocolate is currently sourced.
Major chocolate players such as Barry Callebaut and Mondelēz International are already diversifying their sourcing locations.
“Other cocoa producing countries and regions are not as heavily affected by the issues listed above and have relatively stable or even increasing cocoa production” explains Steijn. Potential new sites for cocoa growth include Liberia and Cameroon in west Africa, and Ecuador in South America.
The reason for this is precisely because these areas, in comparison to Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, are less exhausted by human activity.
When cocoa farms are established, explains Steijn, they replace primary forest. These areas are chosen because of high soil fertility. Over time, this soil fertility is depleted, causing production to shift elsewhere to areas with better fertility. And so on, ad infinitum. Or at least, until natural limits are reached.
Periods of high cocoa prices, such as those seen recently, exacerbate this problem. Higher prices incentivise more farmers to grow cocoa, leading to deforestation rates speeding up.
Nevertheless, suggests Steijn, climate change is “a double-edged sword” and while some areas become less suitable for production, some will go the other way. Research points to areas of Nigeria and Cameroon becoming better for the crop even while Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire’s suitability declines.
Technological innovations will change how cocoa is grown
Innovations in cocoa production, and sustainable cocoa farming in particular, are also changing how the bean is grown.
For example, explains Steijn, agroforestry, the practice of integrating forest with agriculture, is becoming more popular among producers, particularly in South America.
Climate smart agriculture, and non-chemical fertilisers such as biochar and compost, are also seeing greater popularity.
Agriculture is moving away from the old model to the new. “West Africa has long been dominated by monoculture, prioritising short term high yields over longevity. Production models in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire are now slowly but surely shifting towards agroforestry, making them more climate resistant.”
Large private actors want a piece of the sustainable action. The push for more sustainable agriculture is coming both from newer brands such as Tony’s Chocolonely, through Tony’s Open Chain, and established giants like Nestlé, through its income accelerator programme.
The rise of craft chocolate
Another factor is the rise of craft chocolate. This, Steijn suggests, is not susceptible to the same fluctuations as the rest of chocolate production.
“In this sector, quality is rewarded by higher prices, and the focus is therefore on quality over quantity. Though this is a relatively small sector, it is less affected by the aforementioned issues.”
This chocolate is more expensive, however: not all consumers are willing to pay for it.
Craft chocolate growth is projected to be significant. According to marketing consultancy Cognitive Market Research, craft chocolate will have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.20% from 2023 to 2030. The popularity of craft chocolate is being driven by consumers wanting to make ethical choices, according to Cognitive Market Research.
Chocolate alternatives
As the price of cocoa becomes more volatile, chocolate alternatives have become increasingly more prevalent.
Big chocolate players such as Mondelēz and Barry Callebaut are exploring lab-grown cocoa, which is similar to cell-cultivated meat but cheaper and simpler.
Ingredients suppliers including Cargill and Bunge have been looking into using replacements. Bunge, for example, uses ingredients like shea butter and sustainable palm oil for the taste and functionality of chocolate.
Meanwhile, start-ups such as Win-Win and Planet A Foods are using fermentation to mimic the flavour compounds usually provided by cocoa.
Will consumers accept chocolate alternatives?
But without broad consumer acceptance, alternatives are unlikely to transform the future of chocolate.
Consumers are conflicted about the rise of alternatives, according to market research platform FMCG Gurus.
On the one hand, they ideally want to avoid such alternatives as much as possible.
This is especially the case when the presence of alternatives means the product can no longer be labelled as chocolate. In some countries, there is a legal minimum threshold of cocoa solids a chocolate product must have to be labelled as such. Recently, several products, such as McVitie’s Penguin and Club bars, have fallen below this threshold.
Nevertheless, explains an FMCG Gurus spokesperson, consumers are aware that price pressures on raw materials have driven up the cost of chocolate. Such price increases, outside of special occasions and treats, reduce consumer willingness to pay.
According to FMCG Gurus, around 54% of consumers are willing to accept natural chocolate alternatives, with the caveat that these alternatives should not impact either the taste or naturalness of the product.
Different generations have different levels of acceptance. For example, among Generation Z, 61% accept natural alternatives, while only 42% of Baby Boomers do.
Acceptance is different for different geographies as well. In the Philippines, for example, 71% are willing to accept natural alternatives, whilst in France, only 40% are.
In short, chocolate is changing. Growing regions are shifting to areas seen as more suitable for cocoa. Meanwhile, the prominence of cocoa alternatives is growing, but their long-term potential will depend on consumer success. One thing is for sure: cocoa is not what it once was.
Chocolate is predicted to change, but in many ways it already has. As growing regions shift and cocoa alternatives gain momentum, the sourcing landscape for this iconic ingredient is being quietly – but fundamentally – reshaped. The real question now is not whether chocolate will evolve, but how far that evolution will go.
