Summary of alternative proteins’ economic potential in Europe
- Alternative proteins could still deliver strong economic growth across the EU
- Systemiq forecasts sector adding €111bn to Europe’s economy by 2040
- Improved taste and texture expected to reduce persistent consumer scepticism
- Domestic protein production may strengthen food sovereignty and limit exposure to price volatility
- Protein transition could boost crops, biotechnology and wider European industrial capacity
Alternative proteins have been declining in popularity. Consumer scepticism around both affordability and processing has left the sector struggling, with major plant-based companies losing revenues and big names in cultivated meat failing before they’ve even got to market.
Nonetheless, it may be too early to write the sector off entirely. Alternative protein companies operating in Europe may have a key strategic advantage, according to environmental think tank Systemiq.
The think tank predicts that it could add €111bn to the EU economy by 2040.
Will alternative proteins counter consumer reluctance?
Facing as it is the scepticism of consumers, does the alternative protein sector really have potential for the future?
It is common to see an initial reluctance at the early stage of broad industrial policy, suggests Rupert Simons, partner at Systemiq. He views the expansion of alternative proteins in these terms, comparing it to the early stages of electric vehicles or heat pumps.
Yet Simons sees the market share of meat alts growing as taste and texture are improved.
“There are a number of companies in the market who started out with a sustainability-oriented pitch and actually pivoted their pitch to be about taste and texture.”
Domestic production can isolate companies from price volatility
When compared to animal agriculture, alternative proteins can help Europe strengthen its food sovereignty.
According to Systemiq, the EU had a trade deficit of 19 million tonnes of crude protein as of 2024. This is largely in the form of soybean meal from South America or animal feed from Russia and Ukraine.
If plant-based meat was successful, the demand for domestic food-grade protein crops would go up. Alternatively, if consumers ate less meat, the demand for imported crops for animal feed would fall. Either way, the EU would become more self-sufficient.
This could put companies operating in Europe in a good position. They would be more isolated from price spikes.
Europe is typically a small buyer of global commodities, explains Systemiq’s Simons. This means that it does not have large stockpiles of commodities or the power to set prices. It is therefore exposed to global price fluctuations.
If it meets its protein needs domestically, it can reduce its exposure to these fluctuations.
Which sectors could win from a protein transition?
A strong alternative protein sector can indeed boost demand for crops. In particular, the sector would boost demand for high protein crops, such as fava beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas, for plant-based meat products.
Meanwhile, the scaling of cultivated meat and fermentation-derived products could boost the demand for sugar and starch crops. They are an important part of the process, providing glucose for cultivated meat’s cell culture medium and feedstocks for precision fermentation.
If the EU becomes a leader in alternative proteins, this could also boost biotechnology, particularly the export of biotechnology. The export potential of biotechnology could reach €60bn by 2040.
To fulfil its economic potential, the sector needs to scale up, embrace the importance of taste and texture, and boost domestic protein production. The rewards could be worth it.
