How will tariffs impact food in 2026 summary
- Tariffs will continue influencing global food prices despite reduced trade uncertainty
- US tariffs are pushing inflation higher with delayed consumer price impacts
- Global markets face spillover effects including commodity benchmarks like coffee
- European food trade grows as companies reroute supplies away from US
- Alcohol, dairy and confectionery among sectors most exposed to tariffs
2025 was a turbulent year for trade. Tariff barriers from the US affected nearly every country in the world, and nearly every industry – and food was certainly no exception.
Now, several key trade agreements have been signed, and the frequency of new tariff announcements has let up somewhat. Could 2026 bring renewed calm? Or will we simply have more of the same?
Less uncertainty, but pressure remains
In the latter half of 2025, most tariffs stayed in place. Because of this, it was calmer and less chaotic than the first half of the year, explains Cyrille Filott, global strategist at Rabobank.
While uncertainty has certainly declined, and food markets have benefitted from tariffs being delayed or resolved, the economic impact is still being felt by producers, points out Simon Geale, executive vice president at supply chain consultant Proxima.
Key trade deals have removed some uncertainty. “Producers have avoided the worst-case scenario and now know what they are playing with. They can plan for the future, meaning that they can price out some volatility,” says Geale.
However, some trade deals are incomplete. The deal between the EU and US is still a framework, and there is still a lot to be discussed. Therefore, there is every possibility that the US could get impatient and put more pressure on the EU, suggests Thijs Geijer, sector economist for food and agriculture at ING Bank.
Furthermore, the possibility that further product-specific tariffs will be introduced cannot be ruled out, he stresses.
It is still uncertain whether tariffs imposed by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which allows the US President to impose tariffs without congressional approval in an emergency, are legitimate. An upcoming Supreme Court case will clarify whether or not this is the case. Until then, some uncertainty remains.
How tariffs will affect global food in 2026
In 2026, the pressure of tariffs will remain on food and beverage.
Rabobank’s Filott expects some inflation to be seen. In the US, prices will continue to rise, partially as a result of 2025’s tariffs. It takes time for prices resulting from tariffs to be passed down to consumers.
“Other markets will be caught in the crossfire” says Proxima’s Geale. While US consumers saw a 20% increase in coffee prices due to tariffs on Brazil and Colombia, it also led to global price benchmarks going up, hitting the rest of the world. This could happen with other commodities.
We may also see some offerings being rerouted from Asia to Europe, explains Filott. In Europe, therefore, prices could be lowered, particularly in packaging, due to the increased demand that this creates.
Tariffs may lead to a reorientation of the food market. Intra-European food trade is already growing faster than exports either to the US or China, explains ING’s Geijer.
The EU is also looking towards other markets such as Mexico and Indonesia, and potentially India, Thailand, UAE and the Mercosur states in Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay).
“These markets might not be a full alternative by themselves to any ground lost in the US and China, but over time they provide an attractive alternative for some products,” says Geijer.
Alcohol is a sector hit particularly hard by tariffs. Other vulnerable sectors include dairy, confectionery, roasted coffee, wine, cheese, olive oil, and frozen fries.
Companies that have dependency on the US for input costs, such as fertiliser, feed, energy and machinery, may also be affected.
In short, despite more clarity and less chaos than 2025, tariffs will still be burdensome to food companies around the world.
