Key takeaways:
- GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are changing eating habits, with consumers seeking fewer calories but more protein and fiber.
- General Mills is leaning into the shift with protein- and fiber-forward launches like Cheerios Protein and Nature Valley creamy protein bars.
- The company is pairing product innovation with digital agility and global moves, including a potential stake in India’s Balaji Wafers.
The world’s largest packaged food companies are facing a consumer who eats less. Not ‘less snacks’ in the absolute sense, but fewer calories, smaller portions, a more functional and nutrient-conscious mindset. That’s a big shift for an industry built on volume. Yet General Mills CEO Jeffrey Harmening is openly embracing the GLP-1 effect.
Harmening told investors recently that while appetite-suppressing weight loss drugs may dampen overall calorie consumption, they’re boosting demand for protein, fiber and satiety. “Consumers want more protein,” he said, pointing to the strong starts for Cheerios Protein and Progresso Pitmaster. Nature Valley’s new creamy protein bar and the company’s granola lineup are also seeing encouraging momentum. These aren’t niche plays, but early indicators of what the snack aisle could become.
And if Swiss Re’s latest research is anything to go by, this isn’t a flash in the pan. The reinsurance giant estimates GLP-1 adoption could reduce US mortality rates by more than 6% by 2045 – a seismic demographic shift. If that proves true, today’s early product tweaks may look tame compared to what the sector will need to deliver a decade from now.
GLP-1 goes mainstream
Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro have gone from clinical obscurity to cultural touchstones almost overnight. Originally prescribed for Type 2 diabetes, these drugs mimic a gut hormone that regulates appetite and blood sugar. The result – often double-digit weight loss – has made them the fastest-growing class of medications in the world.
In the US, usage has increased fivefold in just five years, with more than 4% of adults now on one of these therapies. Analysts project the global market to grow at more than 25% a year through the next decade. That trajectory isn’t the curve of a passing diet craze. It’s the curve of a pharmaceutical revolution.
The implications for food are profound. A consumer on GLP-1s isn’t necessarily cutting snacks completely, but they’re far more conscious about what and how much they eat. Protein and fiber suddenly carry as much weight as flavor cues. Smaller pack sizes make sense for suppressed appetites. Indulgence doesn’t disappear, but it is portioned, fortified and rationalized.
Swiss Re’s mortality modeling drives home the stakes. Under optimistic scenarios, widespread adoption could lower US deaths linked to obesity-related disease enough to reshape life expectancy forecasts. For bakery and snacks, it represents a once-in-a-generation reset in how products are formulated, positioned and consumed.
General Mills’ playbook
Rather than wringing its hands over reduced calorie intake, General Mills is choosing to meet the consumer on new terms. Harmening is frank that GLP-1s are a headwind – less calories across categories inevitably weighs on topline sales. But he insists the bigger story is the shift in what consumers want.
Cheerios Protein is emblematic. By retooling a legacy brand with a functional halo, the company has both anchored itself in consumer trust and opened a fresh growth platform. Progresso’s protein-heavy Pitmaster soups serve the same purpose, making satiety part of the brand’s promise. Nature Valley’s creamy protein bars sit squarely at the crossroads of indulgence and functionality – sweet enough to scratch a craving, dense enough to feel purposeful.
Granola, too, has become an unlikely beneficiary. Once a breakfast niche, it’s now a snacking vehicle aligned with GLP-1-era needs: texture, crunch, variety and a clean nutrition panel. General Mills isn’t just launching products; it’s repositioning entire categories around a consumer who eats differently.
“People tend to lose muscle mass when they’re reducing their calories and need more macronutrients and fiber,” Harmening explained. That shift in tone is important. He’s not only talking about selling food, but about mitigating the physiological consequences of weight loss. It’s a cue for bakery and snack makers: consumers will reward products that feel more like part of a health strategy than an indulgence guilt trip.
General Mills’ Q1 FY26 snapshot
General Mills kicked off its new financial year broadly as expected, though sales were down on the back of divestitures.
The company posted $4.5 billion in net sales for the quarter, a 7% drop overall and 3% lower on an organic basis. Profits looked inflated by a one-time gain from selling its US yogurt business – without that, operating profit slipped by double digits.
CEO Jeff Harmening said the priority this year is to get back to volume-driven growth by putting more into value, innovation and consumer news. That covers everything from fresh advertising campaigns to instore events and new launches, including Blue Buffalo’s entry into fresh pet food.
He added that General Mills grew or held share in eight of its 10 biggest US categories, with foodservice and international also performing well. While some of the investments will weigh on near-term profit, the company says they are designed to set up stronger, more sustainable growth in the years ahead.
That innovation drive also includes protein- and fiber-focused launches – central to how General Mills is responding to the rise of GLP-1 drugs.
Rethinking snacks in a leaner world
No sector feels the GLP-1 threat more directly than bakery and snacks. These are discretionary, calorie-dense purchases – the very foods consumers are trying to cut back on. But the category isn’t doomed. It just has to adapt.
That means moving beyond better for you marketing fluff to real formulation changes. Protein-fortified cookies that satisfy cravings without undermining muscle retention. Fiber-forward breads that pull double duty as functional foods. Portion-controlled packs that make sense when a consumer physically can’t finish a family-size bag. These innovations may once have been niche; now they’re the price of entry.
Swiss Re’s report underscores the urgency. Obesity is implicated in seven of the top 10 causes of death in high-income countries. If GLP-1s deliver even half of the projected mortality benefits, the long-term consumer base for calorie-heavy snacks shrinks. The only rational response is to build products that resonate with a consumer actively eating less.
And while not every patient stays on GLP-1s long term – side effects and discontinuation rates remain high – the cultural reset they’ve triggered will outlive the prescription. Even consumers not on medication are absorbing the idea that less is more, that protein and fiber matter, that snacks can be purposeful.
Turning less into more
Product innovation is only part of the equation. The other part is supply chain agility. General Mills has been quietly re-engineering its forecasting with digital tools and AI, allowing it to anticipate demand swings more accurately and reduce wasted effort in its supply chain. That frees staff to focus on demand generation while making it easier to manage volatile patterns – whether it’s a seasonal back-to-school surge or an unpredictable GLP-1-driven shift in buying.
This agility may prove just as important as product innovation. A leaner consumer base doesn’t follow the same predictable demand curves as the past. Precision will matter: the right product, in the right pack, in the right market window.
General Mills is also hedging geographically. Reports in India suggest the company is in talks to buy a minority stake in Balaji Wafers, one of the country’s most dominant regional snack makers. Balaji commands around 65% market share in parts of western India and generates close to $800 million in annual sales. For General Mills, which has only a modest presence in India through Pillsbury mixes and flours, the deal would provide a foothold in a market still defined by rising snack consumption rather than calorie restraint.
That global spread may prove critical. In Western markets, calorie compression is the future. In India, it’s still expansion. A balanced portfolio lets General Mills ride both waves.
GLP-1s won’t erase the snack aisle, but they will redefine it. The winners will be companies that can reframe indulgence with protein, fiber and portion-conscious formats, while building the digital and global agility to handle more volatile demand.
General Mills is staking out an early lead by saying the quiet part out loud: calorie consumption is going down. Rather than resisting, it’s choosing to innovate into the trend, betting that better calories will be worth more than bigger volumes.
The open question for the bakery and snacks sectors isn’t whether GLP-1s will reshape demand. They already are. The question is which companies will be nimble enough to thrive in a world where less isn’t a problem to solve – it’s the new definition of success.
