Cocoa harvest summary
- Cocoa prices remain high despite stabilising
- For the 2025/26 season, not much is expected to change
- Côte d’Ivoire‘s crop is predicted to be stronger and Ghana’s crop weaker
- The mid-crop may be a more positive story, although this won’t be confirmed until January
- Structural issues in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana that are pushing up global prices remain
The cocoa harvest season, which typically spans October to June, will begin next month, and chocolate manufacturers all over the world are holding their breath in anticipation of what this might mean.
Prices have been historically high since April 2024, and although there has been some stabilisation, there is little sign of a decline to pre-2024 levels.
The harvest of 2025/26 will be a strong signal as to whether these problems will continue.
Improvements in Côte d’Ivoire, declines in Ghana
Yields are not predicted to be significantly different compared to last year, suggests Steve Wateridge, head of research at tropical research services for market intelligence firm Expana.
However, they will vary between regions. “In Côte d’Ivoire we are seeing the potential for better production in 25/26 relative to 24/25, but in Ghana the crop looks worse this year”, explains Wateridge.
Predictions for the mid-crop, which comes a few months later, are a little more positive.
“Last season`s mid-crops were both poor so we can reasonably expect better mid-crops in both countries in 25/26 although we won`t be able to confirm that from field surveys until January.”
However, the structural problems in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire that led to high prices, and Wateridge expects the demand for cocoa alternatives to remain high.
“We see nothing being done by either government (Ghana or Côte d’Ivoire) to address these issues and reverse the downtrend.”
Could prices return to “normal”?
Some recovery was seen in the 2024/25 season, and if this continues for 2025/26, we could see a positive story.
“We will likely need a further recovery in 2025/26 output together with some rationalisation of demand, in order to sustain long-term downside in prices, if this occurs then we may revisit more ‘normal’ market conditions and pricing,” explains Justine White, cocoa analyst at commodity intelligence company Vespertool.
She suggests that manufacturers should take advantage of current prices, however.
“It would seem prudent to take advantage of current prices which have largely factored in the expected improvement in supply vs last year, with some slight backwardation in the curve reflecting expectations of decent supply for 2025/26.”
