Could the commodity crisis lead to more deforestation?

Commodity crisis and deforestation: A summary

• Climate pressures may drive commodities into more temperate climates
• This may lead to further deforestation
• Expansion of deforestation risks not only harming EUDR compliance but escalating the climate crisis as well
• To avoid this, companies must ensure they choose already viable land
• Furthermore, they can increase yields in current areas by improving soil fertility and using new agricultural practices

If reports are true, Cameroon may be a new home for cocoa production. According to the charity Mighty Earth, production there has expanded significantly in recent years, with manufacturers not facing many of the same problems as they did in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, where climate pressures have radically reduced yields.

This, the charity suggests, has come with a rapid expansion of deforestation in the country.

As key food commodities such as cocoa and coffee see yields reduced by climate pressures – drought, heat, even crop pests – it is becoming more and more imperative for industry to mitigate the effects of these pressures and protect its crops.

But expanding to new, more temperate climes means new land is needed. This will lead to further expansion.

Further expansion has the potential, of course, to lead to more deforestation. Not only will this prevent commodities from being compliant with the the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), but also worsen the effects of climate change itself, creating a vicious cycle. Is there another way?

Deforestation risk from land expansion

Much existing deforestation results from the expansion of agricultural land. As weather patterns push production into more temperate areas, there is a risk that deforestation will simply expand to these areas as well.

The risk of this happening over the next 20-30 years is considerable, explains sustainability consultant Nicko Debenham.

The risk is of particular concern in biodiversity hotspots such as the Amazon and Congo Basin, adds Maya Sermeno, senior account manager for coffee at NGO Rainforest Alliance. Here, “suitable higher-altitude land for coffee and suitable forest land for cocoa overlap with critical wildlife habitats,”

One key example of this is coffee. Rising temperatures are forcing Arabica growers to move further up the mountains where they grow, as the coffee crop needs very particular conditions to thrive.

Expanding without deforestation

Of course, not all land is occupied by forest. If manufacturers are to expand production, they must find land that is already eligible.

Companies must prioritise “regenerative expansion rather than exploitative expansion”, reasons Rainforest Alliance’s Sermeno. There are areas which can be expanded into that will not lead to deforestation, such as degraded land.

“There are millions of hectares of degraded agricultural land that can be restored for coffee and cocoa production. This often requires more upfront investment but delivers better long-term sustainability.”

Employing landscape-level planning – working with NGOs and governments to find areas to expand to that don’t compromise forests – is key to this.

Another solution is agroforestry. If manufacturers choose to integrate forests within agriculture, rather than simply getting rid of them, they can avoid deforestation.

Managing the commodity crisis without expansion

While expansion is possible without deforestation, there is only a certain amount of viable land. There are ways to mitigate the commodity crisis without expanding.

Overcoming such challenges will depend largely on developing planting material that is compatible with weather patterns, explains sustainability advisor Debenham.

Alongside this, new agricultural practices are also aiming to improve yields. The practices aim to maintain soil moisture and fertility.

For example, he suggests, affordable irrigation for smallholder farmers could help mitigate the effects.

Shade management can also be useful. Proper shade management, explains Rainforest Alliance’s Sermeno, can reduce temperatures by 2-5°C and improve water retention.

“The most cost-effective and environmentally sound approach is always to maximize productivity and resilience on existing farmland before considering expansion,” she concludes.

“This protects forests while ensuring farmer livelihoods—exactly the kind of integrated approach the EUDR is designed to encourage.”