In Russia, potatoes are in short supply. The country is experiencing low stocks of the staple starchy vegetable, resulting, reports Euractiv, from its decision to curb imports from geostrategic rivals in the West.
Even longtime ally Belarus was unable to help them out, as most of its potatoes had already been sold to Russia.
Globally, however, things look different. Potato prices have fallen to their lowest since 2021, according to Trading Economics, decreasing 67.12% since the beginning of the year.
While prices are high in Russia, globally, they’re lower than they’ve been in a long time.
Why are potato prices so low?
Potato prices have been falling. The reason for this decline is threefold: high product availability, a reduction of consumption, and limited free-buy purchasing.
“Demand is low, as many buyers are covered by contracts for the current season (in response to tight supply in the two years prior), and spot purchases are therefore minimal,” explains Craig Elliott, market analyst at Expana.
This is exacerbated by the warmer weather, which has caused a fall in potato consumption.
On top of the fall in supply, harvests have been good. “Sharp year-on-year price declines are due to greater crop availability late in the season and larger contracted volumes, as buyers reacted to tight supply and high prices during the two wet harvest years before 2024/25 Marketing Year (MY).”
While prices have been largely declining in Western Europe, “the situation has been dynamic, and decreases have been varied and followed by moments of stabilisation.”
Looking to the future, explains Elliott, people are optimistic. “Planting for the 2025/26 MY is complete and progressed well, according to market players, supported by dry weather. As a result, sources anticipate an early crop, which is being irrigated, reducing demand for the current stock and driving down prices further."
However, price declines may not continue, explains Jamie Pakenham-Walsh, forecast analyst at Expana. This is because declines are ‘not in line with fundamentals.’
“Prices have dropped lower than what our models point to being a ‘fair value’. For that reason, while prices could continue to decline in the short term, there is an upward pressure coming from the fundamentals.”
Why does Russia have a potato shortage?
Things in Russia are different. It has been experiencing a shortage.
The vast country had a poor crop last year, reports Reuters, declining by 12% last year following spring frosts and heavy rains.
Prices have reportedly tripled in supermarkets, reaching an unprecedented 85.4 roubles (€0.94) per kilogram.
The government has lifted import duties on potatoes, two-thirds of which currently come from Egypt.
Another reason for the shortage, suggests Euractiv, is Russia’s decision to curb imports from western rivals. This happens to include every single EU member state. Overall, Russia has reduced its seed potato imports by 93%.
