The chocolate market is booming, boasting a staggering global market value of $140.12bn (€123.08) in 2025 and a projected CAGR of 4.89% over the next five years (Statista).
But external influences are reshaping the industry, forcing it to adapt while also creating a whole host of new innovation opportunities. Here are the key changes shaping the future of chocolate.
Chocolate moving towards cocoa-free
Chocolate is making major strides towards becoming cocoa-free. That’s according to a new report published by Mintel.
Why? Because cocoa crops are becoming too volatile to be relied on. Climate change is already leading to record price highs and the outlook for the commodity remains uncertain as growing conditions continue to deteriorate.
Industry experts are now predicting ingredients such as carob will take the place of cocoa, ensuring the future of chocolate for manufacturers and consumers.
“Delivering naturalness and simplicity, carob is well-placed to see increased use as a promising, and caffeine-free, cocoa alternative, as seen with Caroboo in the UK,” says Honorata Jarocka, associate director at Mintel.
And not only does carob win on affordability, it’s purported to be healthier than cocoa too. Carob is a source of hydroxyproline, an amino acid crucial to collagen production, and one that is often deficient in people who avoid animal products. It’s also gluten-free, caffeine-free, and high in fibre, calcium, iron, antioxidants and protein.
In fact, this option could be preferable to consumers of the future as Mintel found that almost a quarter (23%) of UK chocolate consumers aged 20 to 24 want their favourite brands to offer cocoa-free products in response to rising cocoa prices.
These rising prices have already hurt consumers, not just at the checkout, but also through shrinkflation.
Moving forward, Mintel also expects greater focus to be placed on reducing cocoa content. And for products containing chocolate, such as cakes and biscuits, manufacturers are expected to use less chocolate, adding more of other ingredients instead.
But for those determined to stick to cocoa, without cutting quantities, science may be the solution.
“Exploring lab-grown cocoa offers potential to enhance sustainability and ensure a stable supply for the future,” says Honorata Jarocka, associate director at Mintel.
And there is a chance the cocoa industry could be saved if investment returns.
“Cocoa prices continue to increase due to global supply shortages and years of underinvestment in cocoa farming,” says Jarocka.
Cell-based cocoa offers stability
The development of cell-based cocoa is offering hope to cocoa lovers. Made using plant cell cultivation, it offers a sustainable and ethical alternative to traditional cocoa farming, using less land and water, and releasing lower carbon emissions. It also ensures supply chain stability for manufacturers, while delivering the same end product.
“Although still in its infancy, lab-grown cocoa holds significant potential for the future,” says Mintel’s Jarocka. “Plant cell culture chocolate start-ups like California Cultured, Celleste Bio, Kokomodo and Food Brewer are continuously improving their processes to lower production costs, scale efficiently and meet regulatory standards.”
However, achieving widespread consumer acceptance across all age groups will likely be a greater challenge, and require dedicated efforts to educate the public on the benefits.
Dark chocolate sales soar
Consumers are increasingly embracing the potential benefits of consuming dark chocolate. Linked to improved gut health, lowered blood pressure, improved cholesterol levels, and increased brain function, it is seen as the ‘healthy’ chocolate choice.
Currently valued at an estimated $69.97bn (€61.45bn), the global dark chocolate market is projected to reach $140.25bn by 2034 (Fact.MR).
And links between dark chocolate and longevity could further fuel sales.
“There is an opportunity to harness the longevity benefits of dark chocolate, particularly by focusing on the unique needs of older consumers,” says Mintel’s Jarocka.
The art of chocolate
Consumers are increasingly seeking out higher quality products as the ‘less but better’ trend evolves and grows.
Mintel expects this development to tap into the growing view of chocolate as a special treat, rather than an everyday snack. This is supported by the growth of boutique chocolate brands such as Only Coco. The East Sussex chocolatier creates homemade single-origin chocolate, presented in unique artist-designed packaging and offers flavours such as Celtic Sea Salt, Honey, and Maple & Pecan. And brands are encouraged to lean into this growing trend.
“Exploring creative partnerships with chocolate artists and offering interactive museum-like experiences can help deepen consumer engagement,” says Mintel’s Jarocka.
