Researchers from Finland’s Aalto University are sounding the alarm over the devastating effects rising temperatures will have on global food security.
The findings, published in Nature Food, reveal global temperature increases exceeding 1.5°C would result in a significant drop in crop diversity, impacting food security and endangering lives.
This follows the world’s official entry into an historic drought and food industry insiders revealing the world is on the brink of imminent disaster.
“There is a direct correlation between the increase in extreme weather events and impacts on agricultural production,” says Everstream Analytics chief meteorologist Jon Davis. “The increase in extreme weather events – drought, flood, convective storms, and tropical cyclones – has been increasing for many decades. Recently, these increases have accelerated."
Half of world’s crops under threat
The threat of rising global temperatures is already being felt, with ’heatflation’ a recognised term in food and beverage.
Now scientists can provide a clearer understanding of where and how climate change will affect food production. A research team, from Aalto University, analysed the effects of rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and increasing aridity on 30 major food crops globally.
Their findings indicate that low-latitude regions will suffer the most severe consequences, with up to half of their crop production at risk from changing climatic conditions. Furthermore, these regions will experience a significant decline in crop diversity, further threatening food security.
“The loss of diversity means that the range of food crops available for cultivation could decrease significantly in certain areas,” says study lead Sara Heikonen. “That would reduce food security and make it more difficult to get adequate calories and protein.”
Viable cropland shrinking
Global warming is reducing the amount of global cropland available to grow staple crops, including rice, corn, wheat, potatoes and soybeans. These vital crops account for over two thirds of the world’s food energy intake. And these aren’t the only ones.
“Tropical root crops such as yams, which are key to food security in low-income regions, as well as cereals and pulses are particularly vulnerable,” says Heikonen. “In sub-Saharan Africa, the region which would be impacted most, almost three quarters of current production is at risk if global warming exceeds 3°C.”
Mid- and high-latitude areas will likely retain their crop-growing land. However, the researchers predict the zones for specific crops will change. These areas will also likely see an increase in crop diversity as growing conditions change.
“The cultivation of temperate fruits, such as pears, could become more common in more northerly regions,” says Heikonen.
Other threats increase
Even if climatic conditions remain favorable in some areas, the researchers warn that other factors could impact growing conditions.
“Warming might bring new pests and extreme weather events, which our model doesn’t include. So the situation isn’t really that black and white,” says Professor Matti Kummu, senior author on the study.
And the world has already seen multiple examples of both, with extreme weather events rising in frequency and severity and the number of pest-related crop failures growing.
Opportunity to protect food security
The researchers also observe that many of the low-latitude regions, threatened most by global warming, are already vulnerable, facing economic and food sufficiency challenges.
“In many low-latitude areas, especially in Africa, the yields are small compared to similar areas elsewhere in the world,” says Professor Kummu.
However, he believes there could be ways to mitigate the threat.
“They could get higher yields with access to fertilisers and irrigation as well as reducing food losses through the production and storage chain,” he says.
Though even these could be subject to change, with Professor Kummu explaining that ongoing global warming will add a lot of uncertainty to these estimates, and further actions are likely needed, such as crop selection and novel breeding.
“I always say that the modeling and analysis is the easy part – understanding how to make the changes happen is the hardest part,” he says.
The research team advise that coping with the ongoing changes brought by climate change will require the ability to adjust and adapt as the consequences unfold.
“If we want to secure our food system in the future, we need to both mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects,” says Heikonen. “Even if the biggest changes are in equatorial regions, we will all feel the effects through the globalised food system. We need to act together to address these problems.”
Source: Climate change threatens crop diversity at low latitudes
Published online: 4 March 2025
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01135-w
Authors: Sara Heikonen, Matias Heino, Mika Jalava et al.
