Brexit: The best and worst-case scenarios

By Flora Southey

- Last updated on GMT

Related tags Brexit Euromonitor international fresh food

The fresh food sector may well be the hardest hit when the UK withdraws from the EU, with a no-deal Brexit potentially costing the UK food industry €1.3bn, according to market research provider, Euromonitor International.

Ready meals are likely to be the most ‘disrupted’ category in the food industry if the UK falls out of the EU without a deal, according to a report​ by market research provider, Euromonitor International.

In the report, the company has listed the top five implications of Brexit scenarios on the food and beverage industry, including the prediction that a no-deal Brexit could cost the UK food industry €1.3bn.

“Sales value of packaged food in the UK is forecast to be affected to a greater extent than volume through to 2023,” ​according to the report.

“Under the light/no Brexit scenario, value will be higher than the baseline by 1.2%. Under a no deal Brexit, however, value is forecast to be 1.7% lower, and a disorderly no-deal Brexit would mean sales below the baseline forecast by 4.4%.

The report also highlights potential impacts on specific food sectors, such as the fresh food supply chain.

Categories heavily imported from the EU, such as meat, vegetables and fruit, appear “particularly likely to feel the negative impacts of any No-Deal Brexit, given the shorter shelf lives of these products,” ​the report continues.

“The ubiquitous negativity of a difficult Brexit is clear; all top UK-based packaged food companies sell in categories most exposed to Brexit risks,”​ according to Euromonitor International’s food & nutrition industry manager, Tom Rees.

“But the potential impacts are by no means limited to UK-based companies - and they are by no means small for overseas producers. The top 10 overseas packaged food companies - by sales to the UK - are also strongly exposed across the categories that carry Brexit risks.”

Watch the video for Euromonitor International’s top five implications of the best and worst-case scenarios on the food industry.

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