Global beef export forecast revised upwards

By Oli Haenlein contact

- Last updated on GMT

India widened its lead over Brazil as the top global beef exporter
India widened its lead over Brazil as the top global beef exporter

Related tags: International trade, Beef, Livestock, Pork, Poultry

World beef export predictions for 2015, made last October by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), have been revised to nearly 3% higher to a record 10.2 million tons (mt).

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service’s Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report revised forecasts due to larger shipments from India and to a lesser extent the EU and Paraguay. These shipments more than offset declines by Brazil, Uruguay, and the USA, according to the report.

As export forecasts increased, India widened its lead over Brazil as the top global beef exporter, according to the USDA.

Exports in the US itself were revised 4% lower to 1.1mt, due to a stronger dollar, although production is revised up 2% to 11.1mt because of higher cattle weights.

Pork

Pork, on the other hand, has had its export forecast by major traders revised 5% lower to 6.8mt, as a reduction in shipments by China, the US and Brazil are not expected to offset gains by the EU, according to the report.

It added: "Aggregate import demand is negatively impacted by lower Russian imports due to its economic woes as well as the ban on shipments from key suppliers and disease-based restrictions."

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service said global pork exports would decline for a third consecutive year, while the EU has overtaken the US as the leading global pork exporter.

US exports are forecast 9% lower, due to the strong dollar, while production is revised 1% higher  to a record 11.0mt because of a lower incidence of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv).

Broiler meat

Broiler exports have also been revised lower, dropping by 5%, because declines in Brazil and the US more than offset gains by the EU. The report added: "Brazil’s shipments are constrained by slow economic growth in a number of countries despite opportunities in markets currently restricting the US.

"Argentina’s exports to Venezuela are expected to contract, due to economic weakness in Venezuela and lower oil prices. Angola’s imports are forecast to decline, due to temporary trade restrictions and currency shortages."

US exports are revised 9% lower to 3mt, due, once again, to the stronger dollar, as well as "highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related trade restrictions with some countries".​ Production is revised 1% higher to a record 18mt because of increased slaughter and heavier weights.

Related topics: Meat

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