Sugar prices to edge upwards for 2014/15, says Rabobank

By Oliver Nieburg contact

- Last updated on GMT

Sugar deficit forecast for first time in five seasons
Sugar deficit forecast for first time in five seasons

Related tags: Tax, Rabobank

Raw sugar prices are forecast to rise as much as 7% by Q2 2015, but recent trading suggests prices will come down in the longer term, according to an analyst at Rabobank.

Sugar prices are expected to climb from 17.3 US cents per lb in Q2 2014 to 18.5 cents for the same quarter next year.

‘Not anticipating a large increase’

“We’ve had an upward trajectory for our prices for a long time,”​ Tracey Allen, commodities analyst at Rabobank told ConfectioneryNews.

“We are not anticipating a large increase in prices by any means because we still have large end stocks.”

Rabobank has forecast a sugar deficit of 2.5m MT for 2014/15, but 70m MT of end stocks from previous seasons gives the market a buffer.

However, it will be the first time the sugar market has entered deficit for five seasons and the stock to consumption ratio will hit 37.4%, the first time it has gone below the 10-year average of 38.4%.

Developing market consumption

 “The consumption continues to grow at 2% per annum,”​ said Allen. She said this consumption came as global production was down 0.6%.

It’s going down on an annual basis. There is some adverse weather in Brazil and outside of Brazil there have been declines in cane land in China.”

Allen said the rising consumption was coming mostly from food and drink manufacturers that are moving into developing markets.

Future deficits?

Rabobank’s ‘Commitment of Traders’ report published today shows that the big hedge funds have shifted from long positions to net short positions, suggesting that they expect prices will fall in the longer term.

Allen said it was too early to speculate if there would be deficits in future seasons that would eventually deplete end stocks.

Alternative sweeteners and cocoa hikes

Asked if sugar was coming under any pressure from competitor sweeteners, she said: “We are starting to see increasingly health conscious consumers who are switching.” ​She said that there had been growing interest in natural sweeteners such as xylitol but added that there was no major threat to sugar.

The slight spike in sugar prices comes as cocoa prices were up 6% last week as concerns mount over potential disruption from Ebola in West Africa. The main producing nations, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, have yet to report a case of the virus. Côte d’Ivoire has closed its borders with neighboring Guinea, which has been badly hit by the outbreak.

Related topics: Market Trends

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1 comment

Finding sugar sellers

Posted by Shukri kasim,

Dear sir
My name is shukri kasim
I wanna to buy sugar and searching for sellers I am a buyer I need 4000 ton icumsa 45.
If we agree we will continue working with you.
I need more than 25,000 ton of sugar. for a time being I will buy for starting 4000 tone.
I would like to supply sugar for East Africa Djibouti and Ethiopia.
I need to know the price of sugar you have per ton to Djibouti port the payment method is LC if other options which better than this I am okay. Also send me how long it takes to deliver in Djibouti port after we are agree.
Waiting for your response
warmest regards
shukri kasim

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