"Poland is now preparing itself for a possible embargo on the supply of meat to Russia," said Marek Sawici, Poland’s minister of agriculture. "We don’t know what awaits us when it comes to Russia. In fact, Poland has been preparing itself for a possible embargo on meat supplies to Russia from the moment when Russia last lifted the ban on meat products from Poland – that is, from February 2008."
Russia has also promised to close off supplies of poultry imports from the US. "Supplies of poultry meat from the USA to Russia may be limited prior to negotiations with the [US Department of Agriculture’s] Food Safety and Inspection Service. Rosselkhoznadzor is ready to implement such measures, if new violations are discovered," said Alexei Alexeenko, assistant to the head of Rosselkhoznadzor.
These restrictions could be seen to be politically-motivated, as Rosselkhoznadzor announced new trade restrictions almost immediately after an increase in political tension.
Russia has also cancelled zero duties on meat exports to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, as a measure of protection against imports from the EU. As a result, meat producers from all three countries will lose a considerable level of competitiveness in the Customs Union markets.
It can be assumed that, in the coming months, Russia will seek to increase cooperation on meat with countries with which it has no political tensions. For instance, Rosselkhoznadzor recently lifted the ban on meat imports from Brazil. The Russian veterinary watchdog has already allowed imports of meat from five Brazilian companies – Mataboi, Frigoestrela, Marfrig, AGRA and Cotrijui – and a further cancellation of restrictions is under way.
"Russia has strict requirements for food products supplied to its market, so Brazil has to put in some effort and support dialogue to comply with Russian standards," said Neri Geller, Russia’s minister of agriculture.
At the same time, Russian analysts have said recent actions from some exporting organisations could make the situation worse. "The recent actions taken by the Australian Lamb Group (ALB), which suspended supplies of lamb and mutton to Russia, are wrong; in fact this supports the Russian authorities’ policy on the meat trade," said one Russian political expert, who wished to remain anonymous.
"The Russian government is fighting against meat imports via the veterinary bans, but it has a reason to do so. It wants to use this to stimulate domestic production, as the leading authorities in Russia are afraid that, in a situation with political problems, meat imports could be stopped by exporters and the country would be left without food. Usually, such an approach looks paranoid, but when actions such as the one ALB has taken actually take place, a policy to replace imports starts to look more reasonable and receives support. If there had been any chance that Russia would cancel this policy, this chance is now gone," he added.