Following a closer examination of figures, Stuart Ashworth, head of economics at Quality Meat Scotland (QMS), said they suggested a lower performance per ewe, but that a larger flock in Wales countered Scottish and Northern Ireland performance.
“Although lambs were slow to reach the market in June and July, slaughter volumes picked up through September and October. By the end of October, 200,000 more lambs had been slaughtered in the UK between June and October than last year,” Ashworth said.
“This means that, in broad terms, at the end of October there were the same number of lambs left in the supply chain this year as last year.”
Stronger auction sales
November 2013’s auction market sales, meanwhile, ran 8% higher than last year, which could see the UK enter the New Year with a smaller carryover of hoggs than was experienced last year.
Ashworth added: “It is likely that mortality rates among lambs will have been lower this year than last year. Although the headline figure may be for fewer hoggs carried into 2014, in practice, the shortfall may not be as large as first thought because of this lower mortality.”
A higher volume of lambs on the market has meant producer prices are 12% up on last year, as a result of higher lamb quality and stronger consumer interest in lamb. However, Ashworth pointed out that producer prices are currently 12% lower than they were two years ago.
Ireland
Slaughterings in Ireland have been running ahead of last year, Ashworth noted, saying: “Between June and early November they have slaughtered 2% more lambs than last year and they, too, will have fewer hoggs in the new year given the lower lamb crop reported in the June census.
“In contrast, lamb production in France continues to decline and imports of sheepmeat have been rising. Indeed, UK exports to France increased by 5% in September.”
He explained that European lamb prices were nearly 4% higher than last year and had been slowly increasing over the past month. “The most notable exception is Spain, where prices are 10% lower than last year,” he said.
Ashworth added that New Zealand Lamb’s season had started with slaughterings 10% higher than last year. He said: “The chief executive of Silver Fern Farms, one of the largest lamb processors in New Zealand, has recently issued a word of caution.
“He said that although there is a very high likelihood that prices will be higher than last year at the peak selling period of January to March, NZ prices cannot reach the levels of 2011 or their export market gains, particularly to China, will be quickly lost, as New Zealand lamb would become too expensive for consumers.”