Pre-development research is key to success, say experts
The message is simple; companies need to do more homework if they are to more accurately judge the success rate of new product launches.
Writing in the journal Food Quality and Preference, the authors argue that whilst predicting the market success of a new product prior to a launch is difficult, by collecting as much information as possible prior to launch, industry can begin to make better predictions.
“The process of collecting this information is not easy, and it requires patience and considerable communication between researchers and departments with the needed information ... However, based on this case study coordinating analysis of such knowledge may be able to guide future projects to successful fruition,” said the researchers, led by Professor Edgar Chambers IV of the Sensory Analysis Centre at Kansas State University, USA.
Chambers IV and his colleagues explained that such information includes collecting data even before the product is developed – for example whether the flavour is new to the overall category, of if it is a ‘trendy’ flavour in other areas.
“For flavoured snack products (using only limited general information available to the product developers) success rates of approximately 70% could be predicted,” revealed the team.
They explained that for the snack product category: “being a completely new flavour for the market generally predicted failure, but being traditional, trendy, or a flavour commonly found in restaurants within a country often predicted success.”
Study details
The new study aimed to determine whether the success of a new line extension for a multi-flavoured snack product (available internationally) could be predicted from information available before launch.
Using data from 15, data for each product – including information related to authenticity, familiarity, current trends, packaging, and market issues – the research team devised a protocol that was able to identify with reasonable accuracy how successful the product was to be,
Using 63 flavours, the team correctly identified 75.8% successful products as successful and 66.7% unsuccessful products as unsuccessful.
“For this flavored snack product, being a new flavour in the market was a negative predictor and being traditional, trendy, or a flavour available in restaurants was positive in terms of predicting success,” they confirmed.
Source: Food Quality and Preference
Published online ahead of print, doi: 10.1016/j.foodqual.2012.01.005
“Predicting success for new flavors with information known pre-launch: a flavored snack food case study”
Authors: A.R. Doan, E. Chambers IV
