The report comes after a third outbreak this year of the disease was diagnosed in a village near the Black Sea port of Bourgas, in Southeast Bulgaria, raising concerns that CSF is becoming more prevalent in the country.
In a GAIN report focusing on CSF and its affects on the countries pork market, it concludes that if Bulgaria fails to convince an upcoming EU vetinary survey of its ability to handle further CSF outbreaks, then it could face further restrictions on its exports.
Should this happen; then by the time of its possible accession to full EU membership on January 1 2007, the sale of the countries pork products could be prohibited even in Bulgaria itself.
CSF is a disease spread exclusively through pigs, and while it poses no threat to humans, there are fears that infected pig meat being used in feed, could spread an outbreak further into the country.
According to Ian Campbell of the national pig association, "It is highly contagious and can survive in non-cooked meat products hence the ban on meat exports. If waste food is fed back to pigs, the virus will trigger CSF in those pigs too."
While the report praises the Bulgarian governments attempts to deal with CSF with its "limited resources", it expresses concern at break down in discussions between the industry, government and the EU over the issue of vaccination.
"The lack of professional dialogue on this issue between the government veterinary service and the industry has resulted in violations of major laws and EU-harmonized regulations", states the report.
Vaccines for CSF are readily available; though it has been controversially banned under current EU legislation for fears it may simply prevent diagnoses of the disease.
"They are not allowed for routine control of CSF in the EU because of the risk that the vaccine will suppress clinical expression of the disease but not stop the pig being infectious," explains Ian Campbell.
Despite this ban, a vaccine is already being produced in the country for sale in Macedonia and it is feared that some supplies may be finding their way to concerned pig farmers in the affected areas of South-East of Bulgaria.
"Allegedly, some of these exports were, in fact, destined for the local market. Local experts talk not only about a black market for vaccines but also about a market for negative CSF samples at about $2.0 per a sample."
Despite fears that this black market could be masking other CSF outbreaks, the report concludes that preventing the outbreak may not necessarily have to affect the whole countries pork output.
If the Bulgarian government can keep the infections within the Bourgas region where all three outbreaks have currently occurred, than it may be able to avoid a countrywide ban.
"The optimistic option is for the Bulgarian veterinary authorities to manage to convince the EU to have a regionalized ban on pork exports from the area of Bourgas," it concludes.