Growing fears over soy disease
Soybean Association (ASA) has repeated its call for a temporary ban
on South American soybean imports, despite assurances from the Bush
administration that trade would not be the cause for the
introduction of Asian soybean rust in the United States.
According to a report from the ASA, USDA Under Secretary Bill Hawks recently said soybean and soymeal shipments from Brazil and Argentina were unlikely to spread soybean rust to the United States.
"Unlikely is not a good enough word to say with certainty that these imports will be safe," said Ron Heck, president of the ASA. "At the present time, we are still not in favor of soybean imports."
Soybean officials said too many questions remain unanswered on how soybean rust can be spread and prevented.
USDA Secretary Ann Veneman told the ASA recently that the USDA is still working on the import protocol that will cover imports of soybeans and soybean meal, but that the US will not block imports from South America related to safeguard measures regarding Asian soybean rust.
While signalling the United States will not keep soybean imports out, Veneman stressed that USDA will 'be very careful' when it comes to any imports. A key factor behind the decision not to block imports is that the fact that the US exports a considerable amount of soybeans/products, emphasized Veneman.
The ASA writes that it still is not clear how long the import protocol will take to complete, with the issue of survivability of the Asian soybean rust spores a key unknown at this time. Research into how long the spores can survive is underway, but will still take a few weeks to complete.
The USDA is expected to issue new soy import regulations to try to prevent the introduction of the disease. Hawks said the USDA would use 'good science' in making its decision.
Soybean rust is a devastating, airborne fungus that has already cut a wide swath in soybean crops in Asia, Australia and Africa, and is now moving in the Western Hemisphere.
Since it was discovered in South America in 2001, soybean rust has moved from Paraguay to near the Equator in Brazil. In 2003, the disease cost Brazilian farmers $1.3 billion in lost yield and chemical application.
A worldwide soybean breeding effort is looking for resistance, and chemical companies are reportedly looking at additional compounds for the control of soybean rust. Currently, two fungicides are registered for control of soybean rust in the US.
Soybean rust causes legions on plants that can lead to premature defoliation and decreased yields. With stocks severely reduced last year in the US due to droughts sending soy price rocketing, the soybean industry can not afford for the disease to arrive.
US soybean industry officials said they were confidant that processors would not import soybeans from affected countries, reports the ASA. "They don't want to be known as the company that devastated the US soybean industry," said ASA's Heck.
Key soybean operators in the US include leading oil processor Bunge as well as Cargill and ADM.
Food sales from Brazil to the US have increased over the past decade achieving approxiamately $1.29 billion a year since 1994, going as high as $1.5 billion in 1997 to as low as $985 million in 2001. Brazilian food exports into the USre forecast at $1.7 billion in 2004, according to the USDA, a 16 per cent increase from last year.
Brazil's push to develop its soybean market slots into a global market that has seen prices moving sky high as a result of pressing global stocks. Brazil's contribution will increase global supplies, which should relieve pressure on the prices lower for soybean oil.
Despite this, the ASA predicts considerable price volatility for the rest of the marketing year, 'but higher prices will likely be needed' to slow demand, added the Association.
