The year 2001-2002 will be crucial for shaping the markets for non-GM derived material relative to GM derived material, particularly in Europe, UK market analysts Brookes West, state in a report released this week.
The report, ' Current & future GM crop market dynamics: the case of soybeans ', highlights the following points.
Despite controversy, the adoption of GM technology in global soyabean production continues to develop rapidly, based on the clear farmer benefits of the technology - this includes rapid (officially illegal) uptake in Brazil.
Those selling non-GM derived products (largely livestock products) will be faced with either passing on the higher costs to consumers, as higher prices, or forcing the cost burden to be absorbed down the supply chain - market power considerations point to this burden falling on the feed and livestock sectors.
Identity preservation and traceability of material are set to become increasingly important - this will initially focus mainly on non GM derived material but will become of greater relevance to GM derived material in a few years time.
Up to now, those requiring non GM derived material have been able to source reasonably easily and without significant additional cost. As non GM demand is predicted to rise in 2001/2, demand will come close to the level of global supplies and may outstrip supply.
The non GM derived soya markets are heading for significant change in the year ahead as demand pressures may well push up prices of non GM derived material.
Report author, Graham Brookes, commented, " The report is based on objective analysis of developments and avoids the bias presentation and manipulation of data that is unfortunately so commonplace today whenever the subject of GM technology is discussed."